Banks seem keen to lend more to businesses and households but
both sectors have became more cautious as they deal with
fallout from the recession, Reserve Bank Governor Alan
Bollard told MPs today.
Dr Bollard appeared before Parliament's finance select
committee to explain his decision to leave official interest
rates unchanged at a record low 2.5 percent, as households
remain cautious and business spending weak.
He told MPs that banks seemed to have opened their lending
books for business after last year taking a highly
restrictive approach as they dealt with the international
credit crunch that saw many of the world's largest banks fall
into ruin.
Dr Bollard said the banking sector in New Zealand was in a
good state and banks had access to cash though it was costing
them more to raise money.
Banks would look like to be lending more money out but there
was little demand from businesses or households as they
sought to reduce debt or save more.
This was helping to rebalance the economy, but it was not
known whether the behaviour was a temporary reaction to the
economic crisis or a permanent shift.
The bank expected economic growth of about 1 percent growth
per quarter but from a very low base and with business only
cautiously moving to hire more people.
Inflation was running at around 2 percent, but would rise
this year as increases in ACC levies and costs of the
emissions trading scheme pushed prices up.
Despite these pressures inflation was expected to stay within
the Reserve Bank's targets over the medium term.
Dr Bollard indicated he continued to expect to start lifting
the official cash rate (OCR) around the middle of 2010.
The Monetary Policy Statement pointed to a rise in the New
Zealand dollar in the second and third quarters of 2009, and
an increase in the cost of bank and corporate funding, as
factors reducing the level of the OCR needed to achieve a
desired level of interest rates for households and firms.
Domestic financial conditions were much tighter than would
normally be associated with a 2.5 percent OCR, the bank said.
Reserve Bank estimates suggested the marginal cost of bank
funding had risen to about 150 basis points above the OCR,
from about 20 to 30 basis points before the financial crisis.
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