The price of oil has fallen below $100 a barrel; not long ago
it was close to $150, but unfortunately the value of our
dollar against the ‘greenback' has dropped significantly as
well.
Petrol prices will remain at an historic high for a long time
yet, perhaps forever. More importantly, supplies and prices
remain highly vulnerable to political and environmental
instabilities and probably will do so until reserves
eventually run out.
In a recent blog, I suggested that New Zealand could be
largely self-sufficient in motor fuel and that one of the
keys lay in our own backyard, in the lignite fields of
Southland and Central Otago.
In the short term, more careful use of fuel through more
walking and cycling, less vehicle trips altogether and more
use of electrically powered public transport will help
greatly. Similarly, in the longer term, electric, hybrid or
hydrogen vehicles will prove to be a viable, if expensive,
solution.
Non-food biofuels also have a role and can be carbon neutral
to boot, for those who still think that is important.
Many future solutions need electricity, either directly, or,
as with hydrogen, as part of the manufacturing process. How
we generate future secure electricity is probably the most
pressing long-term problem facing the country. Certainly,
there is no room for fashionable ideology or political whim;
we have to get this right.
Electricity demand is rising; the widespread adoption of heat
pumps is but one of many contributing factors, as traditional
home heating is legislated against or as people turn to the
convenience of electricity.
Personally, having lived through London's bitterly cold 1960s
and the attendant power strikes, I'm never going to be
without a year or so's dry wood ever again.
As with motor fuel, there are short-term and longer-term
options for power. New Zealand is singularly fortunate in the
extent to which we can generate from renewable sources,
primarily hydro, but also geothermal reserves.
Wind farms are beginning to proliferate; a wind and hydro
combination could easily power the South Island in the long
term, especially if the resources were managed for security
of supply rather than share-holder returns. Theoretically, a
low emission coal station at Bluff could return the whole
Manapouri output to the national grid and there would be no
need for wind farms in the south at all.
While the Deep South can provide a significant contribution
to national demand, this does not solve the whole problem.
The demand is principally in the North Island and primarily
in the Auckland region; the generating resources are not and,
while we can, and do, send power northwards, there is a
significant and hugely wasteful transmission loss. In the
future, and especially with electricity-derived motor fuel,
that imbalance of demand will continue. So what is the
solution?
Without doubt, the solution does not lie in damming more and
more, ever smaller river systems, or in controlling every
last inch of the Clutha and Waitaki. Or in covering the south
with wind farms, actually. The solution has to be in
generation where the demand is; in other words, installing
significant capacity in the upper North Island.
I have no doubt that, given their geology, Northerners will
see a significant expansion of geothermal power, but that
will not easily fill the demand gap. I am equally sure that
we could do a lot more than we do with solar heating and with
home mounted wind turbines, right across the country.
The systems whereby capacity can be drawn from the grid or
else fed back in deserve the highest priority. I loved
watching my Norwegian friends' meter running backwards!
Such point of consumption generation has hardly been looked
at so far. There is still a long way to go with insulated,
energy efficient building. In the longer run, tidal power and
other technologies will emerge as reliable and economically
viable options.
None are likely to be complete solutions. In the end, for the
medium to long term, there are two basic options; nuclear
generation and coal.
There are problems and advantages with both. Nuclear is an
option, but we would still have to buy fuel, in an
increasingly competitive market as the more pragmatic
countries, such as France, Japan and Britain, build up their
capacity.
Waste is not so great a problem either, as more and more will
be re-processed in breeder reactors; it is unlikely to need
to be stored here, but there will be a need for secure
transport. Personally, I have some difficulty in finding a
wholly stable site for a nuclear plant that I could live
close to with confidence. For me, seismic uncertainty is the
big killer for nuclear, not to mention cost.
In my mind, clean coal is the obvious answer. New Zealand has
many centuries worth of good quality coal and a lot more of
useable quality.
Much of it, in the Waikato, is easy to extract and close to
the point of demand. If carbon emission is a problem for you
(it's not for me, because I really don't believe it's that
simple) then the good news is that modern technology - from
Germany, for example - can produce almost carbon free energy,
at a cost, but certainly cheaper than the nuclear option for
this country. If government's conscience is still uneasy
about the clean burning of coal, then here is a suggestion.
If global warming (oops, sorry, its getting cooler, so we're
now on to ‘climate change') is a primary concern, then here
is my suggestion. I suggest that the two million tons or so
of coal that we export each year be retained in this country
and burned cleanly and that we forgo the plastic novelties,
trinkets and cheap underpants that we presently get in
return.
Then we help the planet by burning coal more cleanly than it
currently is when we send it overseas; we can keep our
consciences pure by not going nuclear; we can make ourselves
free of overseas energy reliance and we can obviate the need
to dam any more southern rivers or stick windmills all over
our upland landscapes.
And we can retain something similar to our present standard
of living for the sustainable long term and that, I suspect,
is at heart what many watermelon ‘environmentalists' are
trying to prevent.
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