Company earnings exceed analysts’ expectations

Skellerup was one of several companies to provide a positive note in the August reporting season....
Skellerup was one of several companies to provide a positive note in the August reporting season. Photo: supplied.
The August reporting season has ended, with some exceptions, and with aggregate earnings exceeding analysts’ expectations, Forsyth Barr broker Damian Foster says.

Fletcher Building was a major disappointment.

Earnings growth was mid-single figures at an aggregate level up to 10% on a median basis.

The main issue was revisions as downgrades outpaced upgrades by 17 to 10, he said.

Structural growth earnings continued to be revised positively while defensive yield and cyclical company earnings growth decline.

The interesting take out from the reporting season was the difference between earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) and earnings per share (EPS), Mr Foster said.

Including post annual shareholder meetings, five companies stood out as having had significant negative 2018 EPS revisions: Chorus, Steel & Tube, Trade Me, Metro Performance Glass and Evolve Education.

Metro and Steel & Tube were affected by the weaker building sector and higher cost structures.

That was also reflected in Methven and Fletcher Building results. Fletcher results were expected to rebound in contrast to the others in the sector and did not appear to be an area of risk,  he said.Evolve stood out with its annual meeting comments, resulting in marked downgrades.

Chorus showed a small downgrade to its 2018 forecasts but those increased dramatically in future years.

The Trade Me revisions and outlook had been similar.

"Given the outlook for these companies, and the high  Australian ownership, we believe these stocks are likely to suffer from significant overhangs."

On a positive note, standouts among the positive revisions were from Air New Zealand, A2 Milk, Metlifecare and Skellerup, Mr Foster said.

Other companies with high growth performing in line with expectations included Sanford, Tourism Holdings and Z Energy.

With the more positive performance by growth companies, Forsyth Barr was finding more opportunities among them. Several of the strongly performing companies within the grouping  required more positive earnings momentum, he said.

In particular, Freightways and Mainfreight stood out. Freightways should benefit from the positive economic backdrop and "fiscal impulse" of electoral promises.

"We have also upgraded revenue so the lack of earnings growth could be the addition of capacity, reducing capacity utilisation.

"If we are correct in our top-down view, Freightways should ultimately benefit."

Mainfreight should also be a beneficiary, although longer-term growth was more dependent on international operators, Mr Foster said.

During the course of the reporting season, Forsyth Barr made three ratings changes — one positive, two negative.

Heartland Bank was moved from underperform to neutral and the target share price lifted from $1.56 to $1.81. The shares last traded at $1.91.CBL was moved from outperform to neutral. The company appeared to be fair value. Shares last traded at $3.20.

Steel & Tube was moved from neutral to underperform.

"We believe the company is being outcompeted and the underlying business is deteriorating, a fact which will be increasingly difficult to mask, given the escalation in debt."

Steel & Tube shares last traded at $2.16.

Companies still to report include Briscoe Group on September 6, Fonterra and The Warehouse Group on September 22, Kathmandu on September 25 and Hallenstein Glasson on September 28.

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