The August ANZ Business Survey will be watched with interest.
BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said yesterday so far, at least, surveys had not conveyed election jitters as confidence and activity expectations had stayed strong.
But with recent gyrations in the political polls, and more policy ideas revealed, any assumptions of business-as-usual might be be questioned with respect to government policy.
‘‘It wouldn’t surprise us if confidence peeled back a bit from July’s 19.4.’’
One of the other points of interest would be the latest inflation pointers within the survey, after they eased slightly in July, he said.
Other data out this week starts tomorrow with July’s building consents.
Indicators from the industry had been running into some turbulence this year and it would be of interest to see if the consents could help give a sense of direction.
They had regained some poise in recent months, Mr Ebert said.
Further insight into the housing side of New Zealand would be provided by Friday’s QVNZ housing report.
A further slowing in its measure of annual house inflation from 6.4% in July, seemed inevitable. The only question was by how much.
The real value would be in the anecdotal reports to detect whether the clear fall in activity was election nerves or the start of a more fundamental correction in home prices, he said.
‘‘In any case, it will likely take a few months post-election and into the more liquid spring trading period to make an informed judgement.’’
Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said it was a busy week in the United States for economic news.
Two key releases for August were the non-farm payrolls report and the August manufacturing index, both due on Friday.
The market was forecasting 180,000 new jobs to have been created, down from 209,000 in July but exactly in line with the 12-month average.
The unemployment rate was expected to remain steady at 4.3%.
News of US President Donald Trump’s tax reform play might be forthcoming, he said.
The President would visit Missouri this week and was expected to take that speaking opportunity to start providing details on his intentions.
‘‘Tax reform has been eagerly anticipated since the election, given it was a key policy plank during the Trump campaign. Since then, markets have become somewhat cynical about whether anything substantial will emerge and there is arguably little in the way of tax reform priced in as a result.’’
