University expects record roll in 2011

Despite comprehensive caps on first-year domestic enrolments next year, the University of Otago is still forecasting a record roll.

Total equivalent full-time students (efts) places are expected to reach 19,984, up 336 or 1.7% on this year and a 14.5% increase on five years ago.

The largest roll growth was expected in sciences and health sciences courses, planning and funding director David Thomson said in a report to the university council meeting today.

Next year's student population was expected to comprise 18,381 domestic efts and 1603 international efts.

Domestic efts would be the highest ever, but international efts would still be well below the peak of about 2300 reached in the mid-2000s.

In 2008, the Government changed the way it funded domestic students at tertiary institutions, reaching agreements with individual institutions rather than funding everyone who wanted to enrol.

The change did not affect international students, who pay full fees.

In response, most institutions have introduced enrolment caps and more stringent performance and entry requirements.

In May, Otago announced caps on domestic first-year places across about 20 subdegree and undergraduate courses to take effect from semester two this year.

Later in the year, those caps and others were confirmed for 2011 and beyond.

Another report to the university council today asked the council to adopt a detailed list of the number of domestic first-year students who would be accepted in various subdegree and undergraduate courses next year.

If adopted, the net effect indicates a reduction of several hundred efts places.

A university spokesman said yesterday it would be premature to comment on how many places would be lost until the report was considered by the council.

Otago has been negotiating with the Government's funding agency the Tertiary Education Commission (TEC) for several months on its efts funding for next year.

In his report, Mr Thomson said the final result - a boost of about $6 million - was "a pleasing result in the context of funding pressures on the wider tertiary sector".

Otago had received an additional $6 million in roll growth funding, as well as an inflation adjustment of $4.4 million and an extra $830,000 to fund 24 more places for trainee doctors.

However, that gain was "largely offset" by the cancellation of a fund to enable universities to boost salaries, he said.

Otago would lose about $5 million next year because of that decision.

Institutions are able to enrol unsubsidised domestic students provided their total rolls do not exceed 103% of the figure agreed with the TEC.

Mr Thomson said Otago's negotiated funding would enable it to reduce the number of unsubsidised domestic students next year to an estimated 293 efts, well down on the 459 unfunded efts carried this year.