Two opinion polls in the space of a few hours today have
shown a dramatic change in the fortunes of the main parties
and Labour has cut into National's lead.
A New Zealand Morgan poll put National on 40.5 percent
support with Labour climbing to 37.5 percent, a gap of just
three points compared with 11 points a fortnight ago.
And a TV3 poll tonight showed National down four points to 45
percent while Labour gained three points to 39 percent, a gap
of six points compared with 13 two weeks ago.
The two polls delivered news the Government had been waiting
for, and indicated the campaign could have reached a turning
point.
National has held a strong lead for most of this year, with
Labour trailing by more than 20 points in some polls.
Prime Minister Helen Clark said the latest results showed
voters were thinking seriously about whether it was worth
risking a National-led government.
"I always believed that when the election arrived the stark
choices for voters would become clear," she told reporters.
Miss Clark said voters knew Labour had run a strong economy
for most of the past nine years and trusted it to deal with
the financial crisis.
That view was supported by the TV3 poll, which asked 1000
voters which party would best handle the economy during a
crisis -- 42.7 percent said Labour and 41.2 percent backed
National.
The TV3 poll was taken during the days before and after the
Treasury released its latest figures, forecasting a decade of
deficits.
At the same time, the international financial crisis was
deepening.
National's leader, John Key, said he had expected the polls
to move around between now and the election.
Both polls show neither National nor Labour could govern
alone, and when the seats are counted up the Maori Party
would be likely to hold the balance of power.
TV3's poll showed the Greens gaining 1.5 points to 6.8
percent support, New Zealand First up 0.4 points to 2.7
percent, the Maori Party up 0.5 points to 2.5 percent and ACT
dropping 0.4 points to 1.8 percent.
