Education sector will have influence

Reporter Matthew Haggart takes a look at Dunedin North.Investment in the tertiary and health sectors are key campaign issues being touted by political candidates in the Dunedin North electorate. 

However, the economic means of funding that investment differs depending on the political ideologies of the respective parties.

Investing in research and development at the University of Otago and Otago Polytechnic to help strengthen New Zealand's economy is one approach, while on the other hand, retaining state-owned assets to ensure they provide a dividend that will support and grow the two sectors is another.

One certain thing is once the votes are counted in Dunedin North on election day, constituents will have a new representative in Parliament.

Whether the electorate MP will be part of the government is another matter.

Longtime incumbent Pete Hodgson has retired from politics and his replacement, first-time candidate David Clark, will be hoping voters in the stronghold Labour electorate continue to back red.

With the university and polytech both crucial to Dunedin North, tertiary education issues are often high on the agenda for prospective voters, given the institutions are employers of a significant number of constituents.

The tertiary providers also account for more than 22,000 students between them.

That youth vote may help decide the final outcome on election day; a potential factor in favour of Labour given its party candidate has strong links to the university, both as a former student and as the head of residential hall Selwyn College.

Mr Clark will face a strong challenge from National list MP Michael Woodhouse, who has improved his party rank to 31 in his three years on the backbenches after making his political debut in the 2008 election.

Mr Woodhouse, a former chief executive of Mercy Hospital, has strong links to the health sector, another major employer. Dunedin Hospital and the central health organisation for the Southern District Health Board are both central to the electorate.

There are whispers Woodhouse may also be a candidate for the Cabinet, should National be returned to power.

If Dunedin North voters continue to back Labour - the party has held the seat since 1978 - and elect Mr Clark, then the electorate could once again have three representatives in the House for the next term.

Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei is a shoo-in to return to Parliament, given her No 1 ranking on the party list.

She could also be the dark horse in the candidate race for electorate MP and, perhaps, the most likely to gain from Mr Clark's political inexperience, although Mr Woodhouse's loyal following among the affluent hill suburbs of Dunedin North could expand further.

While Labour is sometimes viewed as the most student-friendly of the major parties, the policies of the Greens will have also found traction with the youth and liberal vote.

The Greens' environmental stance and pledge to retain state-owned assets to reinvest in core industry and the state sectors of education and health complement Labour's outlook, while the parties of the left also want to close the growing poverty gap.

Legislation introduced by Act New Zealand and backed by the National Government to remove mandatory membership of student associations will have cast a pall over those parties and their commitment to the tertiary sector.

Government funding caps on tertiary providers has also affected the ability of such organisations to increase revenue.

However, the parties of the right favour investing in small start-up businesses and supporting industry in Dunedin North, such as Port Otago, freight, transport, and the rural and agricultural sectors in the northern coastal settlements of Waitati, Warrington, Karitane and Waikouaiti.

Labour scored 44.24% of party votes cast in Dunedin North at the 2008 election, when National secured a 29.35% share while the Greens claimed 15.81%.

At the last census, Dunedin North had the highest proportion of 15-19-year-olds (14.1%) of any general electorate in the country, while the proportion of those in the 20-29-year-old bracket (23.4%) was third-highest in New Zealand.

The figures reflect the high numbers of youth drawn to study at the twin campus sites of the university and the polytechnic.

The electorate also has the top-ranked proportion in New Zealand for those on a student allowance (8.8%); those employed in the education and training industry (11.7%); and those employed in the health-care and social assistance industry (12.3%).

However, the timing of the 2011 election is unfortunate for candidates wanting to target the student vote, given university exams finished on November 12.

The transient nature of the student population makes it difficult for electorate candidates to gauge whether their campaigns will have reached out to secure the support of young voters.

About 80% of the students at the University of Otago are from out of town and many will have already returned home for their summer holidays.

In 2008, the Labour Party captured a plurality (44.24%) of the party votes in Dunedin North, down 10.6 percentage points on its party-vote share in 2005. Turnout (total votes cast as a proportion of enrolled electors) in 2008 was 81.57%.