Colin Weatherall
Incumbent councillor Colin Weatherall's seat on the
Dunedin City Council is likely to be safe despite a strong
challenge by Bev Butler, a University of Otago academic says.
Cr Weatherall pipped Ms Butler by 57 votes in election
results announced on Saturday, with 317 special votes to be
added to the count.
The votes were expected to be added by Thursday, once
verification by officials in Christchurch was complete,
Dunedin electoral officer Pam Jordan said yesterday.
University of Otago political studies lecturer Associate Prof
Janine Hayward doubted the extra votes would be enough to
swing the result in Ms Butler's favour.
That was more likely if a higher number of votes were still
to be included, or if the race was between only two
candidates, she believed.
"Here, as I understand it, you basically re-run the
iterations.
"I just can't imagine 317 special votes would do anything but
continue the trend we see here."
Cr Weatherall on Sunday said he was awaiting confirmation of
the final count before claiming the win, but had been told
his seat should be safe.
Ms Butler said she was waiting for the final result before
deciding whether to seek a recount.
Prof Hayward said council newcomer Jinty MacTavish appeared
to be "the real interesting story" in results produced under
Dunedin's STV voting system.
Results released on Saturday showed Miss MacTavish had polled
10th in the first round then dropped outside the top 11 as
the rounds continued.
However, as more candidates were eliminated and secondary
preferences reshuffled, she climbed through the ranks to
finish fourth in Dunedin's central ward.
Ms Butler polled eighth in the first round, before dropping
to ninth, then 11th, and eventually 12th.
The shifts indicated Ms Butler relied on a smaller bloc of
supporters ranking her highly, whereas Miss MacTavish
appeared to have broader support, but from people ranking her
lower on their list of preferences, Prof Hayward believed.
"It's just extraordinary to see how much Jinty MacTavish
rose.
"She's sitting there as the fourth elected candidate. She
clearly has very broad support.
"That's the really nice bit about STV.
"It doesn't show blocs of support, it shows overall support."
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