Economists are uncharacteristically united in believing the Reserve Bank will on Thursday hold its official cash rate at 2.5%.
While some lending and borrowing rates offered by retail banks have quietly moved upwards, the Reserve Bank is not expected to move until June, at the earliest.
Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan said the team at the central bank must be feeling quite comfortable.
"They've successfully guided the New Zealand economy through the sharpest points of a global recession into a recovery that is tracking much in line with their forecasts.
"They made a big call to commit to keeping interest rates low for an extended period and, by and large, have been able to stick to it."
The bank had been able to deliver a period of extraordinarily loose monetary policy without sparking inflation pressures, he said.
However, being comfortable meant things were going to plan, not that the bank did not need to act.
The March monetary policy statement indicated an extended tightening cycle that could see the OCR rise by 3% or more during the next few years, Mr O'Donovan said.
"Make no mistake, the days of a 2.5% cash rate are numbered."
With such a mammoth task ahead of the Reserve Bank, it could be argued that the exact timing of the first move was neither here nor there, he said.
Nonetheless, it was important to financial markets, and anyone looking to time their move into longer-term borrowing rates.
The focus on Thursday would not be on the Reserve Bank's decision but on the statement, as the market tried to analyse each word for hidden meanings.
Mr O'Donovan is picking the first OCR hike to come in June, but others are talking about July or September due to the scepticism about the strength of the recovery and the view that the central bank should wait for more data before acting.
The market had taken some of the recent data as a disappointment.
Interest rate markets were fully pricing a June rate hike in March but on Friday were putting the odds at 40%.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley believed the first quarter inflation data out last week gave the Reserve Bank breathing space to wait until July for the first hike.
The Reserve Bank had time to assess how the economic recovery would evolve in light of the subdued nature of construction cost inflation, despite some recovery in housing construction activity.
"As we get nearer to the `around the middle of 2010' time-frame, markets will be looking to the Reserve Bank to provide more clues as to whether June or July is the more likely timing for the first OCR increase."
The bank was unlikely to explicitly pin-down a start date for the start of the tightening cycle, he said.
The emphasis it placed on its discussions of recent economic developments would provide some indication on how it planned to balance a softer growth outlook with inflation pressures in the future, Mr Tuffley said.
