House sales slowing, rents rising

Indications are for a further fall in house prices this year. Photo by Gerard O'Brien.
Indications are for a further fall in house prices this year. Photo by Gerard O'Brien.
House prices are set to fall further this year before a small rebound sometime next year as demand again starts to outstrip supply.

Data out last week from real estate companies indicated sales were slowing and rents were rising.

An online survey last week showed the number of rentals in Dunedin was down 3%.

There was good growth in the listing number of one and two-bedroom rentals while all others dropped.

Rent in Dunedin was up 5% compared with this time last year and demand from tenants was up 10%.

The Ray White Group on Friday reported slightly lower sales last month after the first increase in the official cash rate in more than a year.

The June figures were 10% down on the same month last year.

Ray White chief executive Carey Smith said while overall sales turnover would indicate listings and actual sales numbers were decreasing, days on the market would lengthen.

Barfoot and Thompson chief executive Wendy Alexander said a combination of the traditional winter slowdown and post-Budget uncertainty caused the Auckland housing market to "mark time" in June.

Sales, at 665, were down 16% on those in May, but the average price of $523,058 was down only 3.6%.

"While the Budget has definitely contributed to lower sales, its impact on prices has not been great and there is no indication that investors are getting out of the market," she said.

However, ASB economist Jane Turner said from Auckland the Barfoot and Thompson figures provided a preview to likely movements in the Real Estate Institute figures due this week.

Housing market activity was likely to remain weak throughout the remainder of 2010, reflecting waning demand.

Tax changes around depreciation rules had reduced the attractiveness of holding investment property at the margin.

Also, slowing net migration and rising interest rates had reduced support for housing demand during the year, she said.

"Given the weakening fundamentals, we expect to see house prices decline slightly this year.

But the low level of supply, as indicated by weak consent issuance and the low level of new listings, will limit the degree of down-side pressure on house prices," Ms Turner said.

One of the more telling statistics in the Barfoot and Thompson release was that the average weekly rent in Auckland had increased $5 in June to $403, the highest weekly average for eight months.

Ms Alexander said rents were edging up at a time of the year when they tended to move downwards.

"Landlords are anticipating they will be facing higher costs and they are looking to recover some of those increases through higher rent."

At this time last year, the average weekly rent was $15 lower.

Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan said he estimated house-price inflation over the next few years would be about 10% less than it would have been had the tax system remained unchanged.

The Treasury's estimate of the price impact was a more modest 2%.

With landlords now receiving a smaller tax subsidy, the yield on rental properties would have to rise.

"Our calculations suggest rents will end up about 7% higher than they would have been had the tax system remained unchanged."

Higher rents and lower house prices would tend to increase the rate of home ownership, relative to what would have occurred in the absence of tax changes, he said.

It would take years for those changes to work through the market.

Most likely there would be years of higher rent growth and weak house prices rather than a "big-bang adjustment" as soon as tax cuts were implemented.

Lower-end property prices would be hit the hardest by the reduction in income tax, Mr O'Donovan said.

Landlords would probably prove more sensitive to the tax changes and they were most active in the cheaper market segments.

"We expect house sales will pick up briefly as property investors reorganise their affairs in light of the new tax reality. But beyond the next few months, we anticipate a long period of fairly subdued house sales."

 

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