Already, some signs are emerging of slowing consumer spending although the increase in GST to 15% on October 1 is likely to trigger sales of large ticket items later this month and in September.
Hopes of increased sales among retailers showed signs of waning in recent business surveys.
Statistics New Zealand figures yesterday showed the value of transactions using electronic cards in retail industries fell a seasonably adjusted 0.1% in July from June, mainly due to a 3.1% fall in fuel sales.
When vehicle-related industries were excluded, the value of core retail transactions using electronic cards rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% last month.
While most core retail industries had rises in July, consumables - including food, liquor, and chemist sales - were the main contributor to the rise in the core retail category, with a lift of 2.1%, SNZ said.
When a 1% fall in non-retail industries - including services such as travel and health, and wholesaling - was included, the total value of transactions fell 0.2% in July.
The actual value of transactions in the core retail series last month was 4.5% higher than in July 2009.
Trends for the value of transactions in the total and retail series had both been flat since early 2010, SNZ said.
Although the core retail trend has generally been flat since November 2007, it has been rising steadily since March 2010 and was up 2.7% since then.
ASB economist Christina Leung said the fall in fuel spending was surprising in light of the small increase in petrol prices over the month.
Core spending was largely driven up by an increase in spending on consumables and durables.
"Given food makes up a large part of spending on consumables, this suggests a continued recovery in food prices in the July month.
"Meanwhile, the increase in spending on durables may be partly due to households starting to bring forward purchases of big-ticket items ahead of the GST increase in October."
