"No matter how good your prospects are, or your forward orders, without the cash to pay suppliers you will face problems."
The chamber's September quarter business confidence survey, released yesterday, showed overall business confidence had improved since June.
That tied in with the ANZ-National Bank business confidence survey for October, which showed a net 24% of respondents expected general business conditions to improve in 12 months' time, up slightly on September.
Chief economist Cameron Bagrie said business confidence improved across all sub-components, led by lifts in services, manufacturing and retailing.
"Despite a generally low level of outright business confidence towards the general economy, firms' perception towards their own businesses remains perkier."
Mr Christie agreed there were positive signs but noted getting access to capital remained the top issue for small businesses.
While many of those surveyed had forward orders flowing in, their worry was paying suppliers to fulfil those orders.
Banks had become more cautious, although they were still lending with a margin for risk.
Some banks had rebalanced their portfolios as they readjusted for risk.
Whether or not a business survived through the next few months would depend on things like the leniency of suppliers and maintaining an overdraft, he said.
"Forward orders are not strong enough to say we are through the recession. The cash flow of businesses will determine the state of our economy for 2011."
In the chamber survey, 27% of those responding said their sales were down. Profitability had increased slightly but continued in negative territory.
Nine percent of businesses indicated they were looking to increase the number of full-time employees during the next three months, but 5% said they would reduce staff numbers.
Expectations of wage increases were low, with more than 60% of respondents indicating they were only considering increases below 2% in the next 12 months.
Mr Christie was encouraged by nearly 42% of business respondents reporting their business situation would improve over the next six months, while 9.6% said it would deteriorate.
While it was always difficult to interpret survey results, the past 15 years of surveys showed that how a business felt about its situation three or six months out was where they usually ended up, he said.
Mr Bagrie said the ANZ-National survey showed 31% of respondents expected better times for their business in the year ahead, up four points since September.
Such movements were well within the normal monthly variability of the survey.
"While referring to it as a turning point may be a stretch, the precipitous five months' decline has at least been arrested. After what seemed like a winter of discontent, we'll take any spring that appears to be returning to our step."
