The first phase was the initial bounce back from recession, which resulted in five consecutive quarters of expansion.
The growth had been weaker than typical after a recession and total activity was still below the pre-recession peak.
"The consolidation phase is where we sit now. Growth has wavered and there is increasing concern that the momentum will not return."
This year, Mr Ebert expected a significant bounce in activity based on a series of one-offs.
These included the Rugby World Cup, the Canterbury post-earthquake rebuild, the inventory cycle, the positive impacts of income tax cuts and the prospective reduction in corporate tax, better global growth and soaring commodity prices.
The BNZ was forecasting the economy to expand 3.2% on an annual average basis this calendar year, with growth peaking at 5.1% in the three months to December.
The fourth stage was the reversal of the one-offs, which would see growth taper to 2.3% in 2012, with the possibility of a negative quarter or two, he said.
The last stage was the return to the "new normal", with growth settling at 2.5% to 3% - well short of that experienced in the late 1990s and early 2000s, thanks to the need for governments to run a contractional fiscal stance and the higher cost of, and reduced availability of, credit globally.
