Bank urged to cut OCR, stimulate economy

Craig Myles
Craig Myles
Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard is being urged to make a drastic cut to the official cash rate to help stimulate the economy, which may have been in recession for the past six months.

Myles Wealth Management principal Craig Myles said yesterday Dr Bollard had been "remarkably quiet" over the revelations from Finance Minister Bill English there could have been another recession in New Zealand.

"The slightest hint of green shoots earlier last year was greeted with a consistent theme of rising interest rates. But, as I commented in the Otago Daily Times paper last year, this was both ill-judged and ill-timed.

"So why now do we not hear from the governor that he will cut rates? His silence is inappropriate. I'm imploring the Reserve Bank to show some leadership in this."

If Dr Bollard was in touch with the real economy he would have cut rates in September last year and then again before Christmas, Mr Myles said.

A collective movement downwards would have had little impact on the inflation outlook, as there were other, bigger forces determining the shape, size and timing of inflation in the 2011 year.

However, it would have shown the governor was in touch with the economy and was being proactive in its stabilisation and gradual building to recovery, he said.

Most economists were picking the Reserve Bank to start lifting the OCR from 3% in September, with another move in December.

Mr Myles said a cut of 0.25% to 0.5% before Christmas last year would have been more logical.

Mr English told MPs December quarter figures on the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), to be released next month, might show further economic contraction.

Because the September figures showed a small contraction in the economy, economic commentators had speculated New Zealand might have suffered a double-dip recession leading up to Christmas.

Two successive quarters of contraction in the economy is the technical measure of inflation.

"It's possible - because you're talking about small numbers fluctuating around a very precise level - [to say] whether it's a technical recession or not. Those kinds of bumps along the way are all part of the process of very significant re-adjustment," Mr English said.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said New Zealand was experiencing a two-step recovery.

Corporate balance sheets were coming in much stronger this year, with the exclusion of some listed retailers.

"The reporting season is just starting and I would be surprised if we didn't see reasonable numbers coming through."

But at the "mum and dad" level, retailers and the hospitality industry were suffering and lowering the official cash rate would not change that.

"Mums and dads are frantically reducing their debt, rather than spending."

In the rural sector, sheep and beef commodity prices were on the way up and the wool price had nearly doubled, Mr Timms said. That would eventually feed through into the wider economy.

 

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