The March quarter GDP (gross domestic product) details will be released by Statistics New Zealand on Thursday, but today the NZIER quarterly survey of business opinion provides a timely read on the economic pick-up of the past three months.
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said there was already ample evidence suggesting the New Zealand economy "turned a corner" early this year after a very disappointing performance in 2010.
Thursday's GDP data should confirm that.
The June quarter GDP would not be out until September, but today's New Zealand Institute of Economic Research survey was the next best thing, he said.
"The quarterly survey's trading activity relative to a year ago does a pretty decent job at predicting the GDP results. Again, what we've seen to date in the monthly retail spending data, as well as other confidence surveys, makes us optimistic."
The quarterly survey was unlikely to fully reflect the effect of the Christchurch aftershocks of June 13. Surveys were sent out in early June and the institute had advised more than half of the responses came in during the first week. Also, respondents were asked to look back over the entire first quarter.
Mr Stephens said the National Bank business survey for June - likely to have been held around the middle of the month - suggested business sentiment weathered the latest quakes "reasonably well".
The National Bank survey showed another sharp lift in business confidence in June. The last time confidence was at those levels was when New Zealand was rebounding from recession in early 2010, he said.
The details suggested most of the latest lift was because of growing expectations of reconstruction activity in Christchurch in the coming year.
"We think a key obstacle to rebuilding by Christchurch residents was removed by the Government's new buyout package to the 5000 households in the worst-damaged `red zone'." That should see a much more substantial increase in earthquake-related consents, although it was hard to say when those affected would take up the offer, Mr Stephens said. Affected residents had nine months to make a decision.
For now, the assumption was significant residential rebuilding activity would begin early next year and continue to ramp up steadily throughout the year, he said.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley was expecting GDP growth of 0.5% in the first three months of the year.
"Growth over the first quarter will be particularly impressive in light of the substantial economic disruption caused by the earthquake in Christchurch.
"We had expected GDP would contract given the extent of disruption and damage. However, over recent weeks we have been pleasantly surprised by the strength of the first-quarter economic data and have subsequently revised up our forecast," he said.
Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the output produced in an economy during a measured period. GDP is measured on a quarterly basis and released towards the end of the following quarter. It provides a reasonably comprehensive measure of activity, but the time taken to compile and release the data reduces its relevance.
