Weakened Crown accounts expected

The Crown financial statements out this morning are expected to show a higher deficit and debt position than the May Budget as the costs for the Christchurch earthquakes continue to mount.

BNZ economist Stephen Toplis yesterday said the statements would not only include rebuilding costs but also such things as the Government red zone payout and AMI assistance.

"Underneath the earthquake noise, it will be interesting to see how core expenditure and revenue tracking [have gone] as it has been hinted that both have been faring 'better than expected'.

"This being the case, it may provide some hope that the future fiscal track can be sustained even in the face of a deteriorating economic outlook."

Mr Toplis said there were lots of "interesting bits and pieces" due for release in New Zealand this week. While they should all add detail about the evolution of the economy, none were likely to be market-moving.

The broader market would instead remain fixated on gyrations in Europe and the United States, which would be more about rumour, counter-rumour and rhetoric rather than anything of substance.

In a New Zealand context, the data due out of Australia during the week would be more directly relevant with the number of most substance being Thursday's labour force survey for September. The market consensus was for employment growth of 10,000, which would be sufficient to hold the unemployment rate at 5.3%, he said. Currency and fixed interest markets on both sides of the Tasman could be sensitive to that release.

"Any signs that the unemployment rate is set to trend higher will have Australian markets more aggressively pricing in easing whereas any indication that the recent increase in the unemployment rate is but an aberration will see the opposite response."

That was important to the extent that international investors still had difficulty in differentiating the plights of Australia and New Zealand - made more interesting because New Zealand was the only "major" western world economy genuinely pricing in a likely tightening of monetary policy over the next 12 months, Mr Toplis said. That was compared with 143 points of easing priced in for Australia.

Local data out this week included the electronic card transactions for September, which should give further insight into domestic demand and how the Rugby World Cup might be affecting it.

The QVNZ housing data released tomorrow and the Real Estate Institute sales figures later in the week were expected to suggest that September sales were weak.

Mr Toplis said anecdotal evidence suggested that people were unwilling to list until the Rugby World Cup was over. Also, buyers were not looking as aggressively as they might otherwise.

"Hopefully, this is the explanation for the recent softness because if it isn't, we may have to reassess our relatively optimistic view for both the housing and construction markets."

The BNZ-BusinessNZ performance in manufacturing index will be released on Thursday as will September's food price index.

The BNZ is forecasting a 0.2% decrease in prices.