Surveys reveal confidence slipping

John Christie
John Christie
Two influential business confidence surveys out yesterday did not provide cause for celebration, although investors seemed slightly more confident than they were at the end of June.

The ASB investor confidence survey showed that investor confidence had ended its six-month downward slide to edge up from a net 3% in June to a net 6% in September.

"It appears that Kiwi investors have stayed calm amid the threat of European government defaults and a European banking crisis," ASB head of private banking and wealth management Jonathan Beale said.

It remained to be seen whether the evolving situation in Europe would affect local investor confidence in coming months, he said.

The BNZ confidence survey showed it slipping into negative territory for the first time since 2009.

The survey found that a net -2% of BNZ customers expected the economy would be worse in a year's time.

BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander said that was a fall from a net 7% positive last month and a net 36% two months ago.

However, confidence remained above the six-year average on -9%.

"Considering the seriousness of concerns in Europe, it either reflects the fact that few respondents feel New Zealand is at risk from those events, or that the euphoria following the Rugby World Cup is continuing," he said.

Otago Chamber of Commerce chief executive John Christie said the BNZ survey mirrored what he was hearing around the region. It was inevitable confidence would have a fall after the Rugby World Cup. Some debt repayment was taking place for people who had bought RWC tickets, flights and/or accommodation during the tournament.

Retail sales in the region were "a bit flat" and there was still a bit of hesitancy moving into the Christmas shopping period - something usually left to the last minute, he said.

"All of those things, plus the global situation where something significant happens nearly every day, is having an impact on confidence."

The next chamber confidence survey would be out in December, Mr Christie said.

Mr Beale said term deposits were the most popular investment class for the sixth consecutive quarter, with 18% of respondents believing that they would give the best returns.

Investors were still behaving cautiously with many looking to the traditionally lower risk option of term deposits as their investment of choice.

That came even though the Reserve Bank had signalled that interest rates were likely to remain low until next year.

KiwiSaver reached second equal place with rental property, with 13% of respondents saying they offered the best returns.

That was the highest ranking KiwiSaver had achieved in the survey, he said.

"KiwiSaver has recovered from its fall last quarter, shrugging off the Budget 2011 announcements and returning to its earlier popular trend."

The ASB results showed that nearly half of the respondents were using KiwiSaver. Out of those using or intending to use KiwiSaver, a total of 64% said it would be their primary source of retirement.

The ASB survey was conducted online with 781 adults aged 18 and older. The BNZ survey was conducted on November 5 and had 272 respondents, down from 391 in October and 531 in September.

 

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