Building consents rise signals recovery

Building consents for March were up more than 10% at $845 million, led by Auckland and Christchurch, signalling for several analysts some recovery is now under way in the sector.

The value of residential consents issued across the country rose 30% to $545 million while non-residential declined 13% to $299 million, Statistics New Zealand data said.

The shares of Fletcher Building, the main contractor overseeing the rebuilding in Christchurch, gained slightly by 2c to trade around $6.28 yesterday, having been hard hit during the past year as the timeframe for the rebuilding was extended.

Forsyth Barr broker Peter Young said Fletcher shares had been "negatively impacted" by a slowing in Australia, ongoing weakness in New Zealand and delays to the Christchurch rebuilding.

"We're expecting building activity in New Zealand to have a strong and sustainable recovery over the next couple of years, which should lead to a substantial earnings lift during 2013," he said.

He maintained a "buy" recommendation on Fletcher shares.

Growth was driven by Auckland, with 511 new dwellings approved during March, compared with a six-month average of about 350 per month, and Canterbury, where its three-month figures project to an annual level of 3000 new dwellings.

"We expect this level to tick up to the previous peak level of 4700 per annum over the next few years," Mr Young said.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said Fletcher's outlook for the next two to three years looked more positive, especially from pent-up housing demand from Auckland and some increasing movement in Christchurch.

Although difficulties still lay ahead, an easing of monetary policy in Australia would aid Fletcher, with residential building expected to increase from 139,000 to 146,000 the following financial year.

ASB economist Christina Leung said residential building consent issuance finally showed some decent signs of recovery, "This indicates a recovery in underlying residential building demand is taking place from the lows in April 2011," she said in a statement.

The data noted earthquake-related consents totalled $28 million in March, with $9 million of this for residential buildings and the remaining $19 million for non-residential buildings.

Since September 2010, more than 1500 earthquake-related consents have been identified, totalling $353 million.

"We expect post-earthquake rebuilding will gather momentum later this year," Ms Leung said.

Statistics New Zealand industry and labour statistics manager Blair Cardno said the consents issued during March for 1559 new houses was the highest monthly figure since September 2008.

Most of the Christchurch consents were for houses outside the city in surrounding districts, up by 115 consents to about 230.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

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