New Zealand's unemployment rate is set to hover around
6.5% for the next six months, judging from data from the ANZ
Job Ads series released yesterday.
The series, which sums up newspaper and internet
advertisements, fell 1.4% in June, after a 3% rise in May.
ANZ-National Bank senior economist Sharon Zollner said the
monthly fall was driven by both a 7.7% fall in newspaper job
advertisements and a 0.2% fall in internet listings - both
The composite total, which weighted newspaper advertisements
more heavily to give a better indicator for the unemployment
rate, fell 3.9%.
The composite job series had been calibrated to match changes
in the unemployment rate as closely as possible, she said.
The calibration placed more weight on newspaper
advertisements by five to one. Over time, internet job
advertising had taken market share from newspapers, but not
by 1:1. For example, one newspaper advertisement had been
replaced by several cheaper internet advertisements, often
listed on multiple sites.
The 3.9% fall in June of the composite measure meant the
annual change in the three-month average deteriorated
slightly, Ms Zollner said. However, it remained close to zero
and meant the job ads data was consistent with an
unemployment rate close to 6.5% over the next six months.
"Job ads of today are the physical employment of tomorrow,"
The Otago Daily Times is one of the newspapers used in