The Reserve Bank seems certain to achieve its primary goal of
reducing the proportion of bank lending undertaken at high
loan-to-value ratios (LVRs), BNZ chief economist Tony
However, the bank's subsidiary goal of curtailing the speed
of house price rises might be only minimally achieved.
Releasing the latest BNZ-REINZ residential market survey, Mr
Alexander said price pressures in the New Zealand housing
market were likely to remain firm next year.
Net migration inflows were booming courtesy of a sharp
reduction in the number of New Zealanders shifting to
''Leading indicators of employment growth are strong and
getting stronger and although housing supply is rising,
growth will be limited by a shortage of builders from some
point next year.''
Last month, the survey showed a net 78% of the 250 responding
agents said they were seeing fewer first-home buyers in the
marketplace, he said.
In December, the 587 respondents delivered the same result,
with a net 77% seeing fewer first-home buyers.
''This wholesale withdrawal of a class of buyers who earlier
this year accounted for near 24% of dwelling sales helps
explain why the Real Estate Institute sales data for November
showed sales to all parties down 6.6% from November 2012.''
This month, agents were asked what proportion of their sales
were to first-home buyers.
In contrast to the results of 23.6% in March and 23.3% in
May, the proportion was now only 15.3%, Mr Alexander said.
''The residential real estate market has been handed over to
investors, foreign buyers and people generally shifting
location or trading up or down.''
A net 5.6% of agents reported seeing more investors. Last
month, the result was 6%.
A net 16% of agents felt it was now a buyer's market and a
net 12.5% felt prices were rising compared with 22.8% last
month and 51.2% in September - just before the LVR rules came