Analysts are expecting third-quarter gross domestic product
(GDP) to leap by 1%-1.3% today, on the back of strong
agricultural and primary manufacturing data.
Recent dairying strength is expected to lead to a
manufacturing boost, with the construction and housing
sectors also underpinning gains, followed by increased
In a week of swathes of positive data being released, showing
strength in manufacturing and service industries,
construction and burgeoning, but worrying, housing market
prices, Statistics New Zealand GDP data being released today
was expected to be the ''centrepiece'' of attention, BNZ
senior economist Craig Ebert said.
''We believe it [GDP] will show the economy is busy, and will
get even busier next year,'' he said.
Mr Ebert is picking GDP will be up 1% to 3.2% for the
quarter, while ASB economist Christina Leung is picking a
1.3% gain to 3.5%.
During the past week, Otago Southland put in strong
performances again in the monthly manufacturing and services
sectors, streets ahead in expansion compared with the other
three regions making up the two indexes.
Ms Leung said yesterday general business confidence had
reached a ''very high level'' - its highest in almost 15
years - and the separately released ANZ monthly business
outlook survey yesterday mirrored other data.
ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie the bank's survey had
''incredibly strong results''. Firms' own business
expectations were at their highest since mid-1994 and
expected profitability beyond last month's 19-year high.
''Throw together some localised one-offs; a city rebuild,
plans to address housing shortages in the nation's largest
city and a 40-year peak in terms of trade and the growth
picture takes on `tiger' characteristics, as opposed to
`tabby','' Mr Bagrie said.
While demand looked ''remarkably assured'' he cautioned the
New Zealand dollar would remain high, there were global
economy ''flip flops'' to come and the New Zealand balance
sheet was ''weak''.
Mr Ebert said the 1% GDP gain was expected from agriculture
production, mainly from the dairy sector, following the
severe impact of droughts in the first half of the year.
''This, in turn, should help engender a bounce-back in
manufacturing, while construction also improves on [what was]
a wobbly second quarter performance,'' he said.
Ms Leung similarly picked agriculture and primary
manufacturing as the quarter's focus, saying both Canterbury
and its rebuild and Auckland would remain ''key drivers''.
''We expect growth in the construction activity and household
consumption will underpin the New Zealand economy over the
coming years,'' she said.