The sunshine of this season's milk payout is now under a
cloud for next season's payout. Photo by DairyNZ.
The extent of massive dairy debt is again attracting the
attention of the Reserve Bank and economists, amid expectations
the seasonal payout is set to take a hit.
The fortnightly global dairy auction saw further price
declines of 1.8%, to the lowest levels in 15 months, and
there is speculation the new season's inaugural forecast
could be down by more than $1.50, to $7 per kilogram of milk
solids (kg ms).
While the auction price decline was not unexpected, and did
not ring alarm bells, it increases the likelihood of the new
season payout forecast being much lower, dragging more
heavily on the country's terms of trade and diluting
debt-laden dairy farmers' income.
The lower prices are attributed to supplies increasing from
international competition and Fonterra's own estimated 11%
production boost this season.
Prices were down by more than 20% since February, when
Fonterra announced this season's record forecast $8.65kg ms
Fonterra's forecast for the coming season is expected to be
set at the end of next week, before the next dairy auction.
The further price slide - the seventh consecutive decline -
resulted in the New Zealand dollar weakening against the US
dollar and touching a nine-week low against the Japanese yen
BNZ economist Doug Steel said a lower payout forecast was
unlikely to surprise farmers, given highly visible declines
in world prices to date.
Given current price and currency conditions, a milk price
forecast somewhere around the $7 kg ms mark seemed plausible,
Mr Steel said.
''This [latest decline] fits within our view that dairy
prices would be lower this year,'' he said in a statement.
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens also believed the
new season payout forecast next week would be well down, at
around $7.10kg ms, while also picking the present season
forecast would be downgraded, from $8.65 to $8.50kg ms.
Because the dairy sector carried the majority, or about 65%
of all agricultural debt, and half the dairy debt was held by
about 10% of all farmers, the Reserve Bank was watching the
sector closely, he said.
''Consequently, dairy debt has the potential to create risks
for the financial system, and farmers, if dairy prices were
to fall sharply, or if there was an extreme weather event,
which disrupted production,'' Mr Stephens said.
He noted one of the largest costs for dairy farmers was
rising, as 70% of dairy debt was set on floating mortgage
Many farmers had this season opted to use additional cash
flow to reduce debt.
Mr Steel said aside from rising global milk supply and
Fonterra's estimated 11% production lift, there had also been
a ''strong start'' to the European season and more milk
supplied from the United States.
''We also wonder how demand in China and Russia, big
importers, is holding up,'' he said.
He said the latest 1.8% auction price decline was the
''latest evidence'' that New Zealand's terms of trade would
decline later this year.
While other primary product prices remain robust, lower dairy
prices are a large part of our forecast 10% decline over the
coming 12 months,'' Mr Steel said.
But before that decline materialises, Mr Steel expected next
week's new season forecast by Fonterra will give a sense of
''of the sharp price drop'' for New Zealand.
''We have long forecast a substantially lower dairy payout
for the 2014-15 season, compared to the 2013-14 season just
ending,'' Mr Steel said, citing the 22.6% price drop since
February and the persistent strength of the New Zealand
While highlighting that forecasts were changeable throughout
the milking season, Mr Steel maintained the next week's new
season forecast would be around $7kg ms.
While a lower forecast payout was ''unlikely to surprise''
farmers, and was not desirable compared with this season's
record price, ''it would be manageable'' for farmers, he