The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion will be
scrutinised as closely as ever this morning and data is
expected to be ''fairly robust'', BNZ senior economist Craig
''Our feeling is it will hold up reasonably well, consistent
with above-trend economic growth and firming pressure on the
It was likely the set of numbers would be similar to those
seen in the March quarterly survey - no more, no less, he
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's quarterly
survey did not cover farmers and was likely to show robust
responses from construction, manufacturing and the service
If there was any weakness in the merchants' category, it
could be because of the mild winter, Mr Ebert said.
The Reserve Bank's June Monetary Policy Statement was
predicated on the economy starting to slow over the second
half of the year.
''We still believe this to be a brave assumption. However, we
would also admit the risks of the bank's track being
overtaken by events have probably come off a bit over the
last couple of months.''
It was a case of less upside risk to growth and
inflation, he said.
The Reserve Bank was likely to lift its OCR by 0.25% later
this month before pausing until the end of the year.
While the quarterly survey was likely to hold up well, other
business surveys had lost momentum and the drag appeared to
come from the agricultural sector.
There was further evidence from last week's dairy auction and
Other data to watch this week included the Crown accounts for
the 11 months to May.
They would be checked to see if tax revenue growth was
catching up to the force of the economy's recent rate of
Tomorrow's electronic card data for June was likely to have
expanded again, even after May's ''whopping'' 1.7%.
The warm start to winter was a threat to seasonal sales.
Thursday's Performance in Manufacturing Index would get more
attention than normal after it slowed in May.
And Friday's food price index was likely to lift a seasonal
1.5% for June.
Mr Ebert said Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler was
speaking this morning and tomorrow morning in ''not public''
Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said the
Reserve Bank of Australia was starting to pass on the
messages heard for the past few years in New Zealand.
RBA governor Glenn Stevens gave a dovish speech last week,
contributing to the value of the Australian dollar falling
Mr Stevens used the opportunity to reiterate a ''lower for
longer'' message regarding interest rates and also
highlighted the downside risks to the outlook.
''There were a number of interesting comments such as those
suggesting housing market conditions did not warrant higher
"Mr Stevens also said first-quarter GDP probably overstated
the pace of growth and investors were underestimating the
risk of a steeper fall in the currency, at some point,'' Mr