Interest rates expected to remain stable

Chris Timms
Chris Timms
Official interest rates are likely to stay as they are for nine months to a year, with a chance the Reserve Bank may eventually choose not to lift its official cash rate from the current rate of 3.5%.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said yesterday the Reserve Bank held the rate as expected but seemed in no hurry to lift the OCR.

''The next hike is not to mid-2015, at the earliest, while banks are talking about March. The OCR is expected to peak lower at 4.5% which will have an impact on deposit and lending rates.''

Many people were waiting for interest rates to rise before committing their savings, he said.

Longer-dated bonds were particularly hard to get away in the market because people were waiting for an improvement in short-term rates. Yesterday, longer-dated bonds increased in value.

The value of the New Zealand dollar weakened against the Australian, United States and Great Britain currencies, something Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler had hoped for, Mr Timms said.

''There is less concern about inflationary pressures. This indicates everything is on hold for now. It could be nine months to a year before there is any movement in interest rates.

''The next movement is likely to be up but it could also mean there is no more movement. The governor has not had to do anything too radical. He can take a planned view of what happens from here,'' he said.

Bank of New Zealand economist Stephen Toplis said there was genuine recognition from the Reserve Bank in the Monetary Policy Statement it was ''bamboozled'' as to why inflation was remaining as low as it was.

Not only had the bank offered a less aggressive interest rate track than previously, but it also intimated the risks to the track were based to the down side.

''To cut to the point, the economy is evolving in a way that should be creating inflation, but it isn't. Ultimately, the control of inflation is the Reserve Bank's primary mandate so, if inflation is under control and looks likely to stay that way, then why push interest rates any higher until the link between capacity utilisation pressures and inflation re-asserts itself. If, of course, it does.''

Data out over the next few weeks might push the market to reduce its March rate hike expectations, he said. Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens did not wait for the data before changing his view.

Westpac now expected the Reserve Bank to lift the OCR in June 2015, with a following rise in July.

He forecast a total rise of 75 basis points (0.75%) in the OCR next year instead of the expected 1%.

Data out next week included GDP - economic growth for New Zealand in the three months and year ended June.

The Reserve Bank is forecasting growth of 0.8% in the quarter while BNZ believed the figure would be closer to 0.5%, Mr Toplis said.

Add a Comment