Otago shows strong economic activity gain

Otago has posted the largest quarterly gain in economic activity of any region in the country, its strongest quarterly result since June 2010.

In the ANZ's regional trends research, its economist Steve Edwards said Otago's 2.2% quarterly rise was the largest in the 14 regions.

''The region recorded strong increases in dwelling approvals, internet job advertising, new car registrations, house prices and an improving labour market,'' Mr Edwards said.

Another regional survey yesterday, by the ASB, ranked Otago third of 16 regional council areas.

ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said employment growth was a ''key strong point'' and Otago's unemployment was lower than the national average.

''The tourism sector has had a strong winter and guest nights lifted over the quarter,'' Mr Tennent-Brown said.

In a third survey, released last week, manufacturing in Otago-Southland continued to lead the country, once again assisting to underpin five consecutive months of national expansion.

Nationally, the BNZ-Business New Zealand manufacturing index rose 0.8 points to 59.3, the highest result for any month during the past 15 months, while Otago-Southland's move

from 65.4 points in September to 70 for October reflected a continuation of recent expansionary movements.

The ANZ survey yesterday had Otago's year-on-year economic growth of 4.4% ranked third equal of the 14 regions around the country, behind Northland, 6.3%; Canterbury, 4.7%' and equal with Waikato, 4.4%.

Nationally, the economy expanded 1.1% for the quarter, with the South Island contribution at 1.3% and the North Island at 1.1%.

Mr Edwards said business sentiment in Otago eased during the past three months, but remained ''reasonably elevated'' compared with most other parts of New Zealand. On the farm, calving had gone well across Otago, with dairy production up between 7% and 10% on last year's record.

There had been high lambing survival rates, with store prices for beef and lamb looking good, Mr Edwards said.

Despite some job losses in manufacturing and tertiary education, employment in Otago rose 1% in the September quarter, to be 2.9% higher than a year ago, Mr Edwards said.

''Otago's unemployment rate edged up to 3.8% but still remains the third lowest across the regions,'' Mr Edwards said.

He described retailing as ''patchy'', with a large number of shop vacancies in Dunedin. Otago retail sales values fell 0.8% during the third quarter, in contrast with the 1.5% nationwide increase, he said.

The number of Otago dwelling consents rose 6% in the September quarter, the second fastest rise over the regions and in contrast to the 4% decline nationwide.

Although the volume of commercial consents increased modestly, to be 13% higher than a year ago, consent values dipped 10% in the latest three months, but were 31% higher than a year earlier.

ASB's Mr Tennent-Brown said Otago house prices were continuing to rise, and the growth of residential consents suggested the construction outlook was good.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

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