Relief as OCR held at 3.5%

Graeme Wheeler
Graeme Wheeler
Homeowners with mortgages got a welcome Christmas present from Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler when he held the official cash rate unchanged at 3.5% yesterday.

Mr Wheeler was not expected to change the OCR during his last monetary policy statement for the year. But economists took his comments to mean there may be no lift in interest rates until 2016.

The peak of the OCR is now likely to be 4% as inflation continues to hover below the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% policy target it agreed with the Government.

BNZ economist Stephen Toplis said it was time to celebrate.

''Enjoy the good times while they last. While there will always be those suffering duress, for New Zealand, in aggregate, Christmas 2014 is most certainly a season to be jolly.''

New Zealand's economic progress was the envy of many, he said.

The country had:
 •Rising asset prices
 •Strong growth
 •Significant job creation
 •No inflation

By his reckoning, Mr Toplis believed by September 2015 there would have been five consecutive quarters of annual inflation at 1% or below. That would have an impact on inflation expectations and, in turn, future inflation.

There were three main assumptions on expectations for inflationary pressure: global deflation diminished; the New Zealand dollar falling; and excess demand in the domestic economy finally created inflation.

''In large part, the Reserve Bank has the same view. The risks are clear, particularly the upside risk to the currency and the ongoing downside risk to global commodity prices,'' Mr Toplis said.

The Reserve Bank assumed dairy export prices would rise about 40% from current levels in United States dollar terms. The assumption was not much different from that of the BNZ or Fonterra, he said.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said market reactions were mixed. The kiwi jumped a cent against the US currency, probably reflecting market position.

The jump happened despite the Reserve Bank repeating its assessment the exchange rate was ''unjustified and unsustainable'' and it expected further significant depreciation.

Interest rate market reaction was negligible.

The Reserve Bank's assumption of a subdued housing market looked ''highly suspect'' in light of booming housing market data emerging in the past two weeks, he said.

''We expect the Reserve Bank to become increasingly concerned about rising house prices over 2015 - the response might come through macro-prudential policy rather than monetary policy.''

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