It was a horror 2014 for the dairy industry, New Zealand's largest export earner, with softening demand from China and a ban on selling to Russia hurting global prices.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said the forecast payout was revised down to $4.70 per kg of milk solids.
There had been encouraging price increases in some dairy products, such as butter and cheese, but whole milk and skim milk prices were under pressure.
The dairy industry made up about 7% of New Zealand's total GDP and was a significant export earner, he said.
''A reduced payout feeds through the whole economy and has the ability to wipe out basis points of GDP.''
Close attention would be paid to the upcoming GlobalDairyTrade auctions, remembering prices had to improve close to 30% even to get to the revised payout figure, Mr McIntyre said.
Any deterioration in price would have Fonterra making further downward revisions.
The Reserve Bank would view dairy prices as a negative when looking at official cash rate decisions.
Historically, milk prices tended to have a high correlation to oil prices and the movement of oil prices had been significant. The simple answer was to expect more volatility, he said.
However, there were other themes for the economy to deal with in the coming year, Mr McIntyre said.
Interest rates-inflation: Currently, the inflation rate was below or at the minimum of the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target inflation range.
''With a softening dairy sector, and very little wage inflation, there is a call for interest rates to go lower rather than higher.''
The Reserve Bank had been ''dovish'' in its monetary policy statements of recent times, indicating it is keeping a close watch on global issues - oil, China and the euro zone, he said.
Any reduction in the official cash rate would be positive for the market overall as interest rates were a key driver of asset allocation and valuation.
Interest rates would be the main focus in the United States. All expectations were interest rates would start to increase in the second half of the year and there were many views on how the market would cope, Mr McIntyre said.
In New Zealand, people should expect the continuation of the new norm: lower for longer.
Currency:''Our currency has remained stubbornly high against all major trading partners with the exception of the US. We continue to strengthen against the Australian dollar and parity looks possible in the first quarter.''
While New Zealand interest rates were historically low, they were globally high against major trading partners, he said.
That should support the currency and make it difficult for exporters, particularly to those outside the US.
Migration numbers:Migration had been at its highest level in a decade as the Australian economy weakened and the New Zealand economy performed well against its global trading partners.
Mr McIntyre would not bet on the trend weakening this year, placing more stress on the Auckland housing market. The continual worry of a housing market bubble happening in Auckland, and to a lesser extent in Christchurch, would be a major theme for the year.
The Reserve Bank had placed macroprudential rules to soften house price inflation and the expectation was for those rules to remain in place this year.
Oil-commodities:The oil and commodities sector had several implications for the economy with more good implications than bad, he said. An extended period of lower pricing was likely, and the fall was of material benefit of the global economy.
Lower energy costs were expected to keep inflation lower as well as helping lower input costs for manufacturers. Consumers would have more discretionary money to spend, ultimately feeding into the retail sector.
In New Zealand, there would be positive news for retailers, households and transport operators.
''The big question is how this will affect major oil-producing nations such as Russia. We're starting to see social unrest and talking about bond defaults. The longer oil prices stay at lower levels, the more pain being felt in oil-producing countries.
''In short, there is currently an oversupply of oil based on lessening demand from the euro zone and China and increased fracking in the US.''
It was also likely there would be a consolidation of companies in the resource sector because it was not just oil producers suffering, Mr McIntyre said.
Iron ore and coal miners, along with gold producers, were also seeing prices being squeezed. Already, some of the smaller companies were starting to default on loans, meaning larger companies would get larger.
Euro zone: The euro zone was still a major part of the global economy and an important partner for China, he said.
Greece continued to be problematic and there should be no surprise if the European Central Bank put in place a major quantitative easing programme - similar to the US - to recover confidence and provide market liquidity.
''We can expect better things for Europe in 2015 as the ECB provides broad-based quantitative easing.''
China:The world's second-largest economy was slowing but the key point was how fast the decline would be, he said.
Concerns about the China property market had been in play for the past two years and had the ability to send ripples through the global economy.
The biggest risk for China was the huge amount of foreign exchange liability in the private sector.
Overall, the new easing cycle adopted by the Chinese Government - a rate cut in November 2014 - should be followed by two further rate cuts of 0.25% this year to support economic growth of 7%.
That would be enough to keep the global economy happy, he said.
