Building consents fall seen as concern

Leon Peirce (19) a building apprentice with Mark Fairweather Builder, works on a new house on...
Leon Peirce (19) a building apprentice with Mark Fairweather Builder, works on a new house on Hagart Alexander Dr, Mosgiel. Photo by Linda Robertson.
Capacity constraints could be a contributing factor in the falling number of residential consents issued in recent months, ASB senior economist Jane Turner said yesterday.

Commenting on Statistics New Zealand's February's building consents figures, Ms Turner said the weakness in ex-apartment consents being issued was particularly concerning.

''As yet, we don't have a conclusive explanation for the current weakness. It could just possibly reflect some disruption in building demand from the summer holiday period.''

Alternatively, if construction activity was starting to trend sideways, it was possible capacity constraints were restricting further growth, she said.

Residential construction activity had increased rapidly over the past two years in Auckland and Canterbury and both regions were competing for construction resources.

Apartment consents were relatively high in both November and December and some decline from those levels was to be expected.

What was concerning was the second consecutive monthly fall in ex-apartment dwelling consents, down 1.4% in February following on from the previous month's 8% fall.

Those falls followed a couple of flat months, Ms Turner said.

Non-residential building consents bounced back in February as was usually the case given January consents were disrupted by the holiday period.

''The very lumpy profile of monthly non-residential building consents makes it a difficult series to seasonally adjust.''

Non-residential building consents continued to grow at an annual rate of above 20%. Along with the Canterbury rebuild, there had been a more generalised lift in building demand as the economy improved, she said.

The Reserve Bank was also likely to be surprised by the weaker residential construction consents.

Continued housing supply pressure might see further Auckland house price inflation, which was largely a financial stability concern.

ASB expected the central bank to leave its high loan-to-value lending restrictions in place until at least late 2015.

New house building was exempt from high LVR lending limits in order to not restrict the housing supply response in Auckland.

The Reserve Bank had also requested feedback on its latest proposal for treatment of residential investment loans and had a July 1 implementation date.

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