Forsyth Barr broker Andrew Rooney said the company's fourth-quarter operating statistics were ''solid enough'', with volumes remaining firm despite the loss in market share and shop transactions surging.
''We are comfortable with the operating statistics and have left our 2015 forecast unchanged.''
Z's market share had been falling for several years, although over the past year it was more because the company's volumes had been held flat, despite increasing industry volumes, he said.
Diesel volumes remained ahead of petrol volumes, although in the past quarter, petrol and ''other'' volumes had grown modestly compared with the previous corresponding period.
Fuel margins were the key value driver and had moved upwards from unsustainably low levels over the past five years, Mr Rooney said.
Margins were not expected to increase materially from present levels.
Fuel demand was generally inelastic, because the quantity demanded was the same at any price.
While it was an important value driver, its variability was less than margins.
Maintaining a minimum volume level was important for supply chain economics.
Z refined about 75% of its production at New Zealand Refining. NZR was generally a positive and provided a competitive advantage over imported product.
However, when refining margins were very low, importing product was typically cheaper, he said.
Government data highlighted fuel margins had increased quickly over the past five years but industry profitability had not improved to the same extent.
Work was under way to improve margin transparency.
''Z has a positive short-term outlook due to further margin improvement, store openings, Z's biofuels venture and improved retail offering. We expect earnings growth to boost dividends.''
Looking at risks, Mr Rooney highlighted increased vehicle efficiency and the threat from electric vehicles would place pressure on industry volumes in about five years.
Continued margin increases had created political noise about fuel prices.
If margins continued to increase quickly, regulatory intervention was possible but unlikely, he said.
