Consumer confidence 'nudging up'

There was a clear division in consumer confidence emerging on either side of the Tasman, ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said yesterday.

New Zealand's trend had been from strong to stronger while Australia's had been the reverse.

Mr Bagrie was commenting on the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, which has confidence ''nudging up'' in April to 128.8 from 126.6 in March.

Stripping out seasonal impacts, the index showed a one point lift.

''That's trivial but it's really about holding on to levels of elevation.''

Consumers should feel cheerful, he said.

House prices kept rising, employment was on the way up, interest rates were low, a high dollar made imported products cheaper and Gold Coast holidays were now cheaper with the the kiwi and Australian dollar close to parity.

The economy remained on track for 3% real economic growth over the year ahead.

That sort of growth was more than enough to keep the economic wheels turning, employment rising and wage gains accruing.

Success could breed more success and the feel-good factor, Mr Bagrie said.

Potential spoilers included the ''stratospheric'' New Zealand dollar and low dairy payout undermining incomes, a potential macro-prudential response to calm Auckland's property exuberance and the normal hand-wringing over the global scene.

Across the survey, inflation nuances were heading in contrasting directions, he said.

General consumer price inflation expectations eased from 3.1% to 2.8%, still well above the middle of the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target but such surveys tended to have a positive bias.

Importantly, the result was the lowest in the survey's history and the directional signal was as important as the level itself.

However, house price expectations remained elevated at 5%.

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