Election has implications for pound

An Ed Miliband-led centre-left Labour government will help the United Kingdom sharemarket and the...
An Ed Miliband-led centre-left Labour government will help the United Kingdom sharemarket and the pound. Photo by Reuters.
The result of the United Kingdom election being held on May 7 is unlikely to be a major event for the UK sharemarket but may have larger implications for the pound.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said a Labour-led government would likely be a ''modest positive'' for the UK sharemarket and for the pound.

A Conservative-led government was likely to be negative for the pound in both the short to medium-term.

A YouGov/Sunday Times poll suggested Britain was heading for the most evenly balanced parliament since 1974 with a key difference: Labour and Tories would both fall a long way short of the 326 seats needed to secure an overall parliamentary majority.

The poll put the Tories on 34%, Labour on 33%, suggesting 283 seats and 261 respectively.

The uncertain election result has also prompted the two main parties to examine tentative plans for a second election later this year.

Former chancellor Kenneth Clarke said in the Guardian the experience of 1974, the last time Britain experienced two general elections in one year, showed that voters should be prepared to make up their minds on Thursday.

Mr Timms said Craigs had been fielding a few calls about the potential implications of the election for equities and the currency.

''Overall, we see the result of the election as more important for the future direction of the pound than the UK sharemarket.''

The UK ran one of the largest budget deficits in the developed world.

The Conservatives would most likely want to tighten fiscal policy while Labour would probably take a more relaxed view and slow the pace of austerity.

If the Conservatives stayed in power, they had committed to a referendum on EU membership.

The Conservatives favoured staying in the EU but wanted to renegotiate some key terms.

Labour would not hold a referendum, he said.

In a research note, Craigs outlined the implications of a centre-right Conservative-led government and the implications of a centre-left Labour-led administration.

A centre-right government was likely to accelerate austerity measures, having negative implications for the UK economy.

Despite that, the reaction of UK shares was likely to be less than many expected, Mr Timms said.

''Over the years, the UK sharemarket has become dominated by global multinational companies with little underlying exposure to UK economic or political events.''

A slower UK economy did have the potential to further delay the Bank of England's plans to tighten monetary policy.

An increase in the pace of austerity could be negative for the pound.

The uncertainty regarding a referendum on the EU would also have a negative effect on the pound.

A Labour-led government was likely to delay austerity measures.

''However, as we have noted, the reaction of equity markets is likely to remain minimal. Perhaps somewhat ironically, delayed austerity does have the potential to positively affect the pound.''

Recent consumer, job and wage data from the UK had been positive, Mr Timms said.

 


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