Budget main event but GDT will be watched

Budget 2015 will be the key event in New Zealand this week but tomorrow's GlobalDairyTrade auction will be watched carefully for any further fall in dairy prices.

Two weeks ago, the headline GDT index fell another 3.5% from the previous auction and whole milk powder prices were 1.8% lower.

Prices for both were now 24.3% and 27% below the high points reached in February and March and the headline index was now 1.3% below the previous low of December 2014.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said Fonterra was due to release its initial forecast for 2015-16 next week and the result would be crucial for the sector, following recent downgrades in the season's payout.

Three central banks would also release minutes from their recent meetings.

With the Bank of England on hold until mid next year and the likelihood of the United States Federal Reserve increasing rates this year looking 50-50 at best, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia released today would probably be the most interesting, he said.

''The RBA chose to cut the cash rate to 2% at the meeting these minutes relate to. A more upbeat outlook for the economy meant the Australian dollar rose in response, as investors interpreted the commentary as a signal this cut was the final one.''

A swag of inflation reports were also due out this week from some of the world's most important economies, Mr Timms said.

The final euro zone inflation figures for April were expected today and early estimates showed zero inflation.

The April consumers price index in the United Kingdom was also due today while US CPI figures would be released late in the week.

The US figures were expected to show headline inflation at 0.1%, compared with 0.2% previously, and core inflation at 0.2% for the fourth month in a row.

The New Zealand Budget 2015 was due on Thursday and Mr Timms said there should not be any huge surprises or market-moving policies.

Much of the detail has already been announced.

With a $1 billion cap on new spending, health and education were expected to get the bulk of any new initiatives.

A deficit was expected for the financial year and it would be slightly larger than the $570 million forecast by the Treasury in December, he said.

''The long-awaited surplus is now due next year and will be small.''

The ACC levy cut and the reduced vehicle licensing costs in the Budget had already been announced.

There would be more initiatives to deal with the Auckland housing issues and some news on potential development of the Government's own land holdings was expected, Mr Timms said.

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