Official cash rate, Greece top issues

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is likely to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francoise Hollande this week as tensions continue to rise about whether Greece is able to repay its debts.

Bloomberg reported the three leaders were set to meet on the sidelines of a summit in Brussels on June 10 after Mr Tsipras succeeded in winning more time by proposing a jumbo payment at the end of the month rather than meeting last week's single payment.

The prospects of a Greek default is looming larger and meant European stocks were sent lower for a fourth straight day.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said Greece continued to find new and inventive ways of delaying the inevitable.

Greece delayed the 300million ($NZ472.3million) payment due on Friday but utilised an obscure International Monetary Fund rule that allowed borrowers to combine payments together, if they are in the same month.

The 300million would now be added to the other three June payments which would total 1.6billion by June 30. Zambia tried this in the early 1980s.

Mr Timms said there were also other things to look out for this week.

The Official Cash Rate review and the Monetary Policy Statement on Thursday was one of the most eagerly awaited Reserve Bank meetings in months and was virtually guaranteed to generate a reaction in financial markets.

Markets were pricing a 0.5% cut for the OCR over the coming months although economists remained divided as whether there would be any action on Thursday.

It would also be unusual for the Reserve Bank to surprise markets with a cut this week as its usual method in recent years had been to give warning an easing was coming, Mr Timms said.

The most likely outcome this week could be no change but new forecasts that signalled a ''good chance'' of a downward movement later this year.

Even that would probably be disappointing for financial markets which were partially primed for immediate action.

Should that occur, there was every chance the New Zealand dollar would rebound this week if markets proved to have got ahead of themselves.

The highlight in Australia this week would be Thursday's employment report due at 2.30pm, NZ time, he said.

Consensus expectations were for 19,800 new jobs added in May and for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged from April at 6.2%.

US retail sales data was the last piece in the puzzle before the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

''A lot is riding on the US consumer with energy-related investment declining and net exports being dragged down by the strong US dollar. Expectations are high for consumer spending to fill the void in the second quarter,'' Mr Timms said.

In China, a large number of monthly activity indicators were being released this week.

Today, consumer price inflation was being released and tomorrow, aggregate financing and new yuan loans were reported.

On Thursday, key monthly releases included fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales.

 


 

Main moments

• Prospects of a meeting between leaders of Greece, Germany and France to talk about debt repayment

• The New Zealand dollar could rebound if Reserve Bank does not cut interest rates on Thursday

• Australian unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 6.2%

• US retail spending to provide clue for interest rates movements


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