The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to cut interest rates tomorrow but a global watch is being kept on whether the Fed will lift its rates this month from near zero.
If it does, there will be flow-on effects to the New Zealand currency and the sharemarket.
Mr Robins, the chief investment officer for Queenstown-based Hayes Gold Fund, said along with the August devaluation of the Chinese currency, China was flexing its monetary muscle.
To absorb the large US treasury sell-down, the major central banks were rumoured to be using derivatives.
Further quantitative easing, whether from the US, Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, must be an option at some point, he said.
There were several points to consider from a global macro and gold market perspective in August.
They included:The IMF, led by Washington, announced it would defer a vote on China's inclusion in the IMF global multi-reserve currency.
• China announced it had bought a further 19 tonnes of gold in July as prices fell.
• China devalued the yuan and moved to a managed float as part of a process to increase transparency, reduce regulations and migrate to a free float over time.
• China had become a large seller of US treasuries and several other emerging market countries were likely to follow as they dealt with the fallout of a global currency war.
''Chinese monetary policy is decoupling from the US after many years and this will impact all global businesses and investors. While the Fed will remain important, China is coming of age in global monetary affairs.''
Understanding Chinese global macro strategies was imperative, Mr Robins said.
Craigs Investment Partners took a different view from Hayes Asset Management's.
Broker Chris Timms pointed out China's foreign exchange reserves posted their largest monthly fall on record in August, reflecting Beijing's attempts to halt a slide in the yuan and stabilise financial markets following its surprise devaluation last month.
China's reserves, the world's largest, fell by $93.9 billion to $3.6 trillion last month, central bank data showed.
The drop left market watchers questioning how sustainable China's efforts to support the yuan were as capital flowed out of the country due to fears of an economic slowdown and prospects of rising US interest rates.
The offshore yuan weakened, following the data release, to trade at a record discount to the onshore rate, suggesting investors believed the official rate was being kept too high, he said.
There was relief the dip in reserves had not been larger, with some commentators predicting in the run-up to the announcement the drop could be as much as $200 billion.
The fall in reserves had quickened following China's near 2% devaluation of its currency on August 11, stoking fresh concerns about the economy and heavy selling of the currency.
''China was so surprised by the reaction to the devaluation, it is likely to keep the yuan on a tight leash in the near term to head off fears of a global currency war,'' Mr Timms said.
Derivative
A derivative is anything that is value based against another asset. Farmers in the United States lock in the price for their crops before they are grown to help manage their budgets. In New Zealand, Fonterra offers dairy suppliers a fixed price for their milk to provide some certainty of income.
At a glance
• China selling out of US treasury bonds.
• China decoupling its monetary policy from the US.
• Foreign reserves of China fall sharply in August following devaluation.
• Yuan to be kept on a tight leash to avoid currency war.
