Both Australia and New Zealand were expected to reach their quota limits before the end of the year, probably next month, raising speculation on how the global beef trade would be affected, Rabobank's latest beef quarterly said.
It was important to look through to 2016 and the positive longer-term fundamentals.
There would continue to be limited production growth in the US as rebuilding continued, supply from Australia was reduced and the global market was still demanding beef in a tight global supply situation, the report said.
The lowest dairy payout in more than a decade underpinned a significant increase in dairy cow slaughter in New Zealand, while strong demand from the US and a weaker currency against the US have seen huge volumes shipped to that market.
Total cattle slaughter for the New Zealand processing year (October to September) was forecast to increase around 7.7% year on year to reach 2.5 million head.
The increase was driven by an expected 15% or 140,000 head rise in cow slaughter over the same period, at around 1.07million head.
Cattle slaughter would gradually increase through the fourth quarter, although Rabobank expected the next large increase of dairy cattle to come in the first quarter of 2016, after the seasonal spike in milk production had passed and as the dry summer conditions began.
Driven by the slower economy, China's overall meat market growth had slowed compared with the strong growth in previous years.
Beef was one of the meats that was vulnerable to a slowing economy as consumers traded down to cheaper alternatives.
However, Rabobank did not expect there would be a big decrease in prices in the coming quarter.
BNZ rural economist Doug Steel said even with some pull back in US beef prices, New Zealand farm-gate prices in 2015-16 were expected to average around 10% higher than in 2014-15, helped by a lower New Zealand dollar.
