Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said retailers faced some headwinds with the New Zealand dollar but most still had hedging available heading into the key Christmas period.
Weather forecasts were suggesting El Nino was virtually certain, which could lead to a warmer summer season.
That was likely to be modestly positive for those retailers with summer ranges, particularly in apparel.
Niwa outlook commentary indicated El Nino was virtually certain to continue for the next three months.
''For October to December, above normal pressure is forecast to the north and west of New Zealand while below normal pressure is expected to the east and south of the country,'' it said.
Industry growth continued to benefit Briscoe Group and Restaurant Brands - the operator of KFC, Pizza Hut, Starbucks and Carl's Jnr, she said.
Retail industry statistics showed an apparent focus on ''necessity'' and leisure-related spending while growth in apparel spending, which was more discretionary, remained weak.
Forsyth Barr expected similar trends to continue for the rest of the calendar year.
The data showed a buoyant hospitality sector in New Zealand and durable goods continued to outperform apparel, helped by growth in the housing market.
Briscoe Group and Restaurant Brands had been the key listed retail sector beneficiaries of favourable industry growth rates.
Retailer outlook
Briscoe Group: The company was largely fully hedged for Christmas and another strong result was expected.
Hallenstein Glasson: Early signs suggested low sales growth should continue, albeit margins would probably be weaker, given competition and currency exchange rates.
Kathmandu: The new chief executive had a strong focus on cost which should ensure improved margins and profitability through the Christmas sales period.
Michael Hill International: Australia is the key focus and the retailer is targeting improved sales in its core market. It had returned to product-focused advertising which should enure the issues from the fourth quarter this year did not continue into Christmas.
Pumpkin Patch: The retailer had some hedging in place for the first half of the financial year and the second half is expected to bring more currency issues. Challenges in the international market and the challenge of turning around profitability while keeping a tight rein on spending and stock remained significant.
Restaurant Brands: KFC continues to deliver strong same-store sales growth, which would become more challenging as it cycled stronger comparisons. Solid growth was expected.
The Warehouse: A strong finish from Red Sheds suggested an improved Christmas for the chain. The company is set to launch new products for financial services before Christmas.
