Relief as volatile quarter ends

Brokers and investors are looking forward to a better three months. Photo by Reuters.
Brokers and investors are looking forward to a better three months. Photo by Reuters.
The September quarter was one of the most volatile in some time but the good news was the quarter was traditionally the weakest of the year and was now behind us, Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said.

United States stocks closed higher on Friday as a rally in healthcare companies helped propel them to gains during an up and down trading session. The Dow Jones completed its longest wining streak since July with five straight sessions of gains.

Chinese stocks rose sharply, catching up to a rally in global equities after the market was closed for a week long holiday. However, stocks in other Asian markets fell amid concerns about a slowdown in emerging markets.

The International Monetary Fund also warned that troubles in emerging markets could risk asset fire sales and curtail growth in rich countries.

A gauge of Australian energy shares rose 6.7%, putting its gain this month (October) to 13%, he said.

Many commodities were priced in US dollars and a weaker dollar made those commodities more affordable to global buyers. The momentum also helped commodities reliant economies like Indonesia and Malaysia.

Japan's shares were under pressure earlier after the country's central bank decided to maintain its monetary policy. Some market participants had expected more monetary stimulus to bolster an economy showing some signs of weakness in recent months, Mr Timms said.

But the benchmark Nikkei finished up for a sixth straight day, at its highest level in almost a month.

Asked about the bullish markets, Mr Timms said investors had realised the US Federal Reserve was likely to keep interest rates unchanged until next year.

''They are starting to see an easy monetary policy for some time yet and are willing to put risk back on the table. The Fed got to the brink but did not commit to lower interest rates.''

Employment data out of the US indicated no immediate threat of strong inflation. And Japan was in the same situation, he said.

In New Zealand, volatility was not as sharp as overseas but investors were following yields and looking for income from the sharemarket.

One of Mr Timms' clients had term deposits coming due and was looking at options.

''Frankly, he has no options. Interest rates in banks are low. Investors are prepared to look at more risk for a better return.''

Some of the calls being fielded by Craigs' brokers were coming from people not traditionally involved in sharemarket investment.

The good thing was if they bought well, got good advice and had good returns, they might stay. But if things went bad, they would be scared off for life, he said.

''As we move into the final three months of 2015, the good news is that what is traditionally the weakest quarter of the year is now behind us.''

The September quarter delivered an average Standard & Poor's 500 gain of just 0.4% since 1950, much lower than the 2.7% average of the other three markets.

In contrast, the December quarter was traditionally the strongest period for the equity market returns, with an average gain of 41.% for the S&P since 1950.

Returns for the December quarter had been positive 79% of the time, well above 59% for September, Mr Timms said.

He would continue to focus on companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable dividend yields, favour large companies over small ones and defensive sectors over cyclical sectors.

Preferred regions right now were New Zealand, the US and Europe.

Craigs had a neutral view on the United Kingdom and was cautious on Australia and ''very cautious'' on emerging markets.

''Existing investors should apply caution and take profits in higher risk positions. New investors should selectively target buying opportunities, accumulating good quality holdings as they become cheaper amid the uncertainty.''


At a glance

• September quarter one of the most volatile.
• Worst behind investors, with December traditionally stronger.
• Low interest rates tempt investors into the sharemarket.
• New Zealand, the United States and Europe are preferred regions.


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