Otago-Southland tops PMI

The Performance of Manufacturing Index was a picture of health in September with manufacturing in Otago-Southland looking particularly strong.

The BNZ-BusinessNZ PMI, released yesterday, had Otago-Southland leading the four areas covered by the index with 60.4 points.

Central was on 54.9, Canterbury-Westland on 54.4 and northern on 53.5.

A rating above 50 means expansion with the larger the number, the stronger the expansion.

Otago-Southland Employers Association chief executive John Scandrett said the September reading followed 60-plus in August and was considerably ahead of June's 38.3.

''We have certainly lifted our regional game on the manufacturing front in recent months.''

There was still a mixed bag of responses, he said.

In food and beverage and textile and clothing, operators were experiencing variable outcomes, but machinery and equipment comments were consistently positively weighted.

Wood and paper sectors still faced considerable barriers.

Within the sub-indices, the new orders and deliveries readings were strong.

''The majority of operators are clearly anticipating forward buoyancy around sales levels. It is extremely rare to have all survey respondents on the same page so there will be some manufacturers who will, unfortunately, continue to experience marginal downturn outcomes,'' Mr Scandrett said.

The national PMI was 55.4, compared with 55.1 in August.

BNZ senior economist Doug Steel said it could have given up a point or two and still be considered robust.

Economic growth was still expected to slow in the next 18 months but the second half of this year would still be stronger than the first.

''The fact the PMI has maintained a mid-50s reading in the third quarter is supportive of that. The PMI suggests activity is expanding at a solid clip, even though manufacturers' general confidence, according to other business surveys, has been dented.''

Solid domestic demand, in one form or another, was a common positive factor noted by many respondents in September.

Improving conditions in Australia and a generally lower New Zealand dollar were seen as positive, Mr Steel said.

On the negative side, dairy weakness was mentioned by many.

On balance, the strength in new orders suggested stronger sales growth in coming months.

Separately, a few manufacturers mentioned the downside of a lower currency in the form of rising import costs, a timely reminder a lower currency was not universally positive.

It was probably too early for that to show up in the third-quarter inflation figures due out this morning, but some price pressure was showing up, he said.

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