El Nino's effects materialised across Otago during the past week with gales, rain, extreme fire warnings and even a low-snow prediction, all in a matter of days.
The weather's volatility underpins numerous warnings that El Nino's effects are about to take a stranglehold on the agri-sector's performance.
Production, supply, demand and global pricing may all become secondary, as dairying, sheep and beef, horticulture and even Canterbury's highly irrigated areas are not immune from El Nino.
Minister for primary industries Nathan Guy last week urged farmers and growers to prepare for El Nino's possible impact, offering practical tips on coping with drier summer weather.
While every El Nino was different and its effects on New Zealand hard to predict, it often meant drier conditions in the north and east, with cooler temperatures and more rain in the west, he said.
''This would not be good for those on the east coast of the South Island, who have had a very dry 12 months already and are still officially in drought,'' he said in a statement.
Rabobank's agribusiness monthly report said international guidance suggested El Nino was now ''virtually certain'', with a 99% chance of hitting the country through to December.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said full-season output for the dairy sector would ''depend heavily'' on the expected El Nino weather pattern this summer.
''Niwa recently upgraded its assessment and ranks the current pattern as almost as strong as the `super El Ninos' of 1982-83 and 1997-98,'' Mr Gordon said in a statement.
However, he cautioned against using those earlier El Ninos to gauge the economic impact this time, given the agricultural sector had changed significantly since 1998.
''Firstly, there has been a major expansion of dairying in the regions that are vulnerable to El Nino, largely at the expense of sheep and beef farming,'' he said.
About 80% of the dairy herd increase since 1998 had occurred in the South Island.
''This matters for a drought's impact on farm incomes,'' he said. Other recent droughts had arguably been revenue-positive for the dairy sector as a whole, although not for the drought-afflicted areas.
The drop in milk production at the time had been more than offset by rising world prices.
''In contrast, a drought forces sheep and beef cattle to be sent to slaughter earlier, at lower weights, which depresses both prices and volumes,'' he said.
His second point was that irrigation developments had enabled the spread of dairying to drier regions. A recent NZIER report estimated irrigation expansion during the past decade added more than $1billion to the value of farm output in a normal year.
''It's harder to pin down the value of irrigation during a drought year. It's not a get out of jail free card, as water still has to be carefully managed.
''But it will provide a sizeable mitigant compared to the 1998 drought,'' he said.
Mr Gordon predicted Canterbury would be the farming region most likely ''to be in the firing line'' of El Nino, as it accounts for almost two-thirds of New Zealand's irrigated farmland.
He will be updating economic forecasts next month, and while assuming the drought will subtract 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth during the first half of 2016, there remained a ''wide margin of uncertainty'' around the actual impact.
Minister for Primary Industry's advice . . .
• Have a plan - make decisions early and take action.
• Implement feed budget.
• Use irrigation water efficiently; plan for water restrictions.
• Talk to experts, the bank, accountant, veterinarian and peers.
• Look after animals.
• Make time for yourself and family. Ask for help if needed.
Weather facts
El Nino: Prevailing weather comes from the west, typically prompting a very dry summer.
Soil moisture: All of West Coast and the top of South Island, normal. The whole east coast can expect below-normal moisture levels through to December.
Rainfall: North Island and South Island west coasts normal. East coasts below normal through to December.
SOURCES: WESTPAC, RABOBANK
