Unemployment probably rose in September as strong growth in the labour force offset moderate growth in employment.
Statistics New Zealand will tomorrow release its labour market data, including the Household Labour Force Survey and the official unemployment rate.
Economists and the Reserve Bank were at variance on what the unemployment rate would be for the year ended September.
Current unemployment is 5.9%. Westpac is picking the rate to rise to 6.2% in September and ASB is saying it will fall to 5.7%.
The Reserve Bank is forecasting an unemployment rate lift to 6% in September, pressing slightly higher next year before falling back towards 5.4% by 2018.
Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said in a labour market preview he was forecasting the HLFS would show employment in the economy grew by 0.4% in the September quarter.
That would result in annual employment growth softening to 2.6%.
''While that's still healthy, it's well down on the above 3% rates we were seeing over the past year.
''Importantly, growth in employment is coming atop very strong population growth, with net migration rising to a record high over the past year.''
The resulting increase in the labour market force meant that despite continued employment growth, the unemployment rate was expected to push higher to 6.2% in September.
A key risk around the forecast was what happened in labour force participation, Mr Ranchhod said.
Westpac expected the participation rate would rise to 69.4% in September - just short of the record high reached in March.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley believed the participation rate would stay steady on 69.3%.
The combination of the already-published working age population, and the ASB employment and participation rate forecasts, predicted a 5.7% unemployment rate.
''An important part of our forecasts is we believe underlying employment growth has peaked and will be lower over the year ahead,'' Mr Tuffley said.
''And this is happening at a time when net migration inflows are high and at this stage showing no signs of turning.''
The combination meant the unemployment rate might rise over coming quarters, even with employment growth remaining positive, he said.
Also being released tomorrow is the Labour Cost Index which everyone agreed would show modest wage growth for the past year.
The broader Quarterly Employment Survey measure of average hourly earnings growth was expected to have eased back to 2.6%.
