New Zealand's quarterly national accounts due out this week will provide interesting reading given opinions on both the economy and monetary policy are in flux at present.
Westpac and ASB economists expect there to have been a strong bounce back in economic activity in September, as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP.
Statistics New Zealand will release the balance of payments figures tomorrow and the GDP figures on Thursday.
Westpac is forecasting GDP growth of 0.9% for the September quarter to give an annual growth rate of 2.4%.
ASB is forecasting quarterly growth of 0.8% and annual growth of 2.2%.
But the Reserve Bank last week said atmospheric measures indicating strong El Nino conditions this summer could reduce New Zealand's GDP by 0.3% to 0.8%.
The bank, in cutting the official cash rate to 2.5%, said there were several risks and uncertainties to its outlook including whether the current El Nino resulted in drought conditions and weaker output.
However, given the range of New Zealand weather conditions in an El Nino, it did not assume a drought in its current projection.
El Nino is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean which has a global impact on weather patterns and begins when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator towards South America.
ASB economist Jane Turner said third-quarter growth would be underpinned by robust services growth, although there was a degree of uncertainty around services sector growth due to methodology changes.
A temporary boost from dairy cow slaughter was expected.
"Despite a forecast for fairly respectable 0.8% growth, it is still a more subdued rate compared with growth recorded in 2014 and we will continue to see a slowing in annual growth.''
The economic deceleration reflected slower growth in manufacturing and construction, along with falls in mining and agricultural production, she said.
Dairy production was expected to be a drag on GDP growth.
The increased rate of dairy cow slaughter would boost GDP growth in September but was a temporary lift as smaller herds would reduce dairy production in the future.
The ASB expected the official cash rate to be cut to 2% by the middle of next year, Ms Turner said.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon was forecasting the third-quarter current account deficit to narrow slightly from 3.5% of GDP to 3.4%.
The current account figures would be released tomorrow.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the goods balance was expected to slide further into deficit.
Export prices and volumes rose for the quarter but they were more than offset by a sharp rise in the import bill due to the weaker New Zealand dollar.
In contrast, trade in services was expected to move further into surplus, thanks mainly to a growth in tourist spending, he said.
"The surge in tourist spending over the last year has been dramatic. If sustained at current levels or higher, it will have major implications for the long-run outlook for New Zealand's current account balance,'' Mr Gordon said.
