Quiet time for economic data

The flow of economic data slows to a trickle this week, with the first significant announcement coming in New Zealand on January 11, when building data statistics are released.

Tomorrow, New Zealand's trade and credit data statistics will be the last release of the year.

The United States has a relatively light data calendar over the next few weeks.

Non-farm payrolls on January 9 is the next big release and before then there will be the usual interest in the strength of holiday sales.

Australian markets also have a relatively light data calendar in coming months.

The Reserve Bank of Australia credit data is due late this month and, in the first week of January, there are updates on retail trade, building approvals and international trade.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said yesterday December had been action-packed for economists.

"Last week was a cracker with two big central bank announcements offshore and a solid GDP data release and the Government's half-year update to analyse locally.''

First and foremost was the lift in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

It was seven years to the day since the Fed last adjusted its funding rate, when it cut it to near zero, he said.

Markets saw no surprises in Fed projections for the economy, the Fed funds rate or chairwoman Janet Yellen's considered answers to media questions.

Dr Yellen emphasised the path of upcoming rate rises would be gradual and data-dependent.

Mr Tuffley expected three more rate rises next year, with bond yields and the US dollar forecast to rise and the New Zealand dollar to weaken.

The Bank of Japan surprised markets on Friday by announcing some tweaks to its monetary policy. However, rather than additional easing, the tweaks were more a recalibration of existing measures, he said.

In his last quarterly economic forecasts of the year, Mr Tuffley said ASB had adjusted its foreign exchange forecasts in September to take several developments into account.

Since then, the dollar had rebounded. ASB still expected further dollar weakness from here, although the risk was it not falling quite as far as forecast in the near term.

"In addition, we have pushed back our forecast of economic recovery in China. This has a direct impact on New Zealand's exports, as China is New Zealand's largest export destination,'' Mr Tuffley said.

The predicted slower growth in China also had knock-on effects on New Zealand through Australia, New Zealand's second-largest export destination.

China was Australia's main trading partner.

ASB expected the NZD/USD exchange rate to ease and trade in the high US50c range early next year.

The Reserve Bank was expected to cut the official cash rate to 2% next year, further undermining the NZD/USD cross rate, he said.

ASB expected the Australian dollar to ease to US65c by March and the NZD/AUD to ease modestly lower over the year ahead.

The dollar was likely to trade in a range centred on €0.55 in the year ahead and to ease below 40 pence by early next year.

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