China’s campaign to calm markets put to test

A slump in Chinese share prices caused global volatility before a relief rally started. Photo by...
A slump in Chinese share prices caused global volatility before a relief rally started. Photo by Reuters.
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The influence of China on the global economy became obvious quickly this year when authorities were forced to stop trading on China's major share indices on Monday after a day of selling by investors.

Until a few years ago, it was the United States markets which drove investor sentiment around the world with the well-worn catchphrase "if America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold''.

Concerns about the health of the Chinese economy are not new but China's six-month-old campaign to calm sharemarkets will be put to the test this week.

Asian shares, in particular, are looking for strong action from Beijing.

New Zealand and Australian shares performed better than expected but Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said that was mainly due to the different make-up of investors.

In China, the markets are driven mainly by retail investors - ordinary Chinese who had been encouraged to borrow and invest in the sharemarket.

The transtasman indices are dominated by institutional investors.

In New Zealand, KiwiSaver funds are having a strong influence on the NZX, and in Australia, pension funds dominate much of the ASX.

The CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzen sank 7% before trading was suspended, its worst single-day performance since August last year when China was in the throes of another market rout.

That August episode is said to have planted the seeds of the latest slide.

Authorities back then reacted by imposing a lock-up on share sales by major institutional investors.

The lock-up was expected to end in a few days, allowing the sale of up to 1.24 trillion yuan ($NZ281 billion) of shares.

Some analysts are now forecasting the lock-up will continue given the severity of Monday's slump in prices.

The selling spread through Europe and then on to Wall Street.

Shares of several Chinese firms that trade mainly in US markets, and are not subject to Chinese trading restrictions, slumped as well.

China's yuan currency hit its lowest level in more than four years in both onshore and offshore trades on Monday.

There is continued concern about the weakness in Chinese manufacturing, despite Beijing's surprise currency devaluation in August.

Mr Timms said it was difficult to get an exact reading on the Chinese economy as it was not as transparent as the economies of countries such as New Zealand, Australia, the US and the UK.

However, concerns about yuan selling prompted China to start policing its currency market in a way traders have rarely seen before, levying penalty payments for aggressive trading and prompting some banks to turn down business.

The central bank also temporarily suspended at least three foreign banks from conducting some currency business, Reuters reported sources saying.

China's response to Monday is seen as heavy-handed as it included suppression of futures and derivatives markets and instilled fear as regulators pulled in brokerage executives for questioning about insider trading and malicious short-selling.

Volatility in Asian sharemarkets is not new and panic attacks are usually followed by relief rallies.

As China's markets began to show signs of strength yesterday afternoon, Asian markets began retracing their losses.

Investors should expect more of the same this year.

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

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