The New Zealand dollar has fallen about US3.5c during the past month and analysts say it needs to steady to avoid slipping into "decline mode''.
A month ago it stood at US68.15c, while at 5pm yesterday it closed down again, at 64.51c.
Mounting threats of a Fonterra downgrade to its existing forecast payout could further depress the kiwi's value, while a Reserve Bank official cash rate (OCR) cut could have investors looking elsewhere.
Westpac analyst Imre Speizer said he expected more downward movement.
He said the kiwi needed in the short term to "hold'' around US64.60c "to avoid slipping back into decline mode'', but in the next one to three months, Mr Speizer expected to see the cross rate lower towards US62c, as the divergent monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of New Zealand played out.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said the kiwi had slid more than 5% so far this year against the greenback, which meant the decline made the country's goods more attractive to overseas buyers.
However, when equity markets were volatile, investors tended to shy from commodity-based currencies, and usually went back to the Japanese yen or US dollar.
"This could be exacerbated by a weaker [Fonterra] dairy payout. If it's a downgrade, as expected, the kiwi will be [pushed] down further,'' Mr McIntyre said.
He expected the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR in March; one of two cuts most economists are expecting.
However, that would mean both New Zealand and Australia offered 2% OCRs, and investors were more likely to opt for the bigger Australian economy, he said.
In an earlier strategy note on 2016 investment themes, Mr McIntyre said US dollar cash flows remained a powerful investment theme.
The US dollar was rising in volatility and providing a natural portfolio hedge.
"In our view, the US dollar bull market is underpinned by both cyclical and structural factors,'' he said.
The US has the only global central bank which is expected to continue tightening monetary policy over the near-term, and growth in the US has been stronger than elsewhere in the world.
There was going to be upward pressure on the US dollar, as US consumers imported fewer goods from other jurisdictions, and the US received more capital from investors seeking relative stability.
"We view US dollar denominated assets as a powerful investment thematic for New Zealand investors. Even better are US companies with strong US dollar cash flows,'' Mr McIntyre said.
