RBNZ will not yield easily on lower official cash rate

Craig Ebert.
Craig Ebert.
The Reserve Bank yesterday adhered to its stance of nothing needs doing any time soon, but acknowledged uncertainties are again on the rise.

The official cash rate was kept at 2.5% with the central bank maintaining its relatively strong easing bias.

BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said that, importantly, the bank spent time highlighting why rates should not be cut now.

"In particular, this was the first time that we can remember where the Reserve Bank had specifically referred to core inflation in its OCR/Monetary Policy Statements.''

In doing so, the bank noted annual core inflation was consistent with the target range of 1.67%. It also said inflation expectations remained stable.

Graeme Wheeler.
Graeme Wheeler.
The combination of those statements was a strong warning to all and sundry the bank would not pander to pressure to lower its cash rate just because headline inflation remained low, Mr Ebert said.

It was a reminder that if headline inflation stayed low, reducing inflation expectations to the extent economic behaviour threatened to push the core rate down further, the Reserve Bank would respond by cutting rates.

"It's also important to note the Reserve Bank points out financial conditions are already easing - without the bank's assistance - as the dollar depreciates and market interest rates have declined.''

That added further support to the argument for no reduction in the cash rate anytime soon, he said.

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler said in his OCR statement house price inflation in Auckland remained a financial stability risk.

There were signs the rate of increase might moderate but it was too early to tell. House price pressures had been building in some other regions.

There were many risks to the outlook, he said.

Those related to the prospect for global growth, particularly in China, global financial market conditions, dairy prices, net immigration and pressure on the housing market.

The bank expected headline inflation to increase this year, but take longer to reach the target range than previously expected, Mr Wheeler said.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said if nothing else, low headline inflation was presenting the Reserve Bank with a presentational headache.

At just 0.1%, annual headline inflation has been below the bottom of its target band for five quarters - and below 2% since 2011 - and Mr Bagrie expected it could remain that way for most, if not all, of 2016.

Despite maintaining an expectation of an improved domestic growth backdrop over the year ahead, with ongoing support from the likes of tourism, construction, net immigration and improved consumer and business sentiment - and even explicitly acknowledging core inflation at 1.6% and stable inflation expectations - low headline inflation remained a sticking point for the bank, he said.

 


Multiple risks

• Prospects for global growth, particularly China

• Global financial market conditions

• Dairy prices

• Net immigration

• Pressures in the housing market


 

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