Analysts divided over Oceana Gold outlook for year

Oceana Gold’s Waihi gold mine. Photo supplied.
Oceana Gold’s Waihi gold mine. Photo supplied.
Oceana Gold has completed a massive year of mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity and delivered record annual gold production of more than 419,000 ounces - but that has left analysts at odds over its 2016 outlook.

Craigs Investment Partners research says Oceana's 2016 gold production guidance is "conservative'' and could be bettered, while UBS believes the company's assets are spread "too far across the globe''.

It has three mines across New Zealand, another in the Philippines and a big development mine under way in South Carolina, in the United States.

Oceana bought Newmont's central North Island Waihi mine last year for $132 million and in a $996 million script-only deal, took over the Haile development mine in South Carolina.

Craigs broker Peter McIntyre said Oceana had delivered 9000oz beyond the top of its earlier guidance range, of 410,000oz, for calendar 2015.

"The outlook for 2016 has the potential to build on this, with its 385,000-425,000oz guidance likely to be conservative,'' he said.

While Craigs had changed its forecast on production, to align with Oceana's guidance, Mr McIntyre believed there remained the potential to extend it.

Additional gold may come from operations at Waihi, and from the initial production from Haile, which could begin at the end of the year.

"Exploration is also coming back into focus, with highly prospective ground acquired around Haile and Waihi,'' he said.

Craigs maintains a "buy'' recommendation on Oceana's stock.

Banking and investment services giant UBS said despite Oceana's better-than-expected annual output, it was not prompted to change its "sell'' recommendation on the stock, Dow Jones reported.

UBS thinks the company is trying to do too much after a busy year of M&A, which also included a takeover of US-focused Romarco Minerals.

As a result, it does not believe Oceana Gold's share price is adequately reflecting the risk involved in running operations across so many geographies and time zones, Dow Jones said.

"We currently see Oceana Gold as having a full portfolio that is perhaps spread too far across the globe,'' UBS was quoted.

"With a lot going on, we believe Oceana Gold should simply focus on its lower cost assets. In our view, the share price is full and pricing in a best-case scenario.''

However, Mr McIntyre said "Oceana's track record was sound'', and it had shown the market it could operate across numerous jurisdictions.

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