Consumers upbeat in spite of indicators

New Zealand consumers are ignoring bad economic news with sentiment broadly stable at a respectable level, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index.

ANZ senior economist Philip Borkin said if they wanted, there were several things consumers could get wound up about.

The dairy sector faced a daunting period of ongoing poor returns and an intense focus on costs.

The adjustment had much further to go.

Those wanting to get on to the housing ladder would be looking a recent price growth with despair, he said.

It was the same for savers, given ongoing falls in interest rates.

Those close to retirement might need to reassess future work/leisure plans.

"And for those still with many years to go in the workforce, while technology comes with massive opportunities, it is resulting in phenomenal change across a number of industries. Job security and wage growth is suffering as a result.''

However, consumers continued to just get on with it like clockwork, Mr Borkin said.

The index rose two points in April to 120, slightly above the historical average and continuing a theme evident since the start of the year.

A net 8% felt better off compared to a year ago, broadly where it had held for four months.

A net 28% were positive regarding the next 12 months.

Net optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook, at net 9%, reached a five-month high.

A net 38% believed it was a good time to buy a major household item, up 4% from March.

In seasonally adjusted terms, it was a mixed regional picture. Confidence fell in Wellington, Christchurch and the regional South Island, was broadly unchanged in Auckland and rose in the regional North Island.

While it was tough for first-home buyers, existing property owners were benefiting from perceived wealth gains, which was positive for spending intentions.

Lifting house prices lifted confidence, boosted by lower interest rates.

Although nominal wage growth was low, low inflation and the competitive retail environment meant the marginal dollar was going further, he said.

The ANZ confidence composite index, which combined both consumer and business sentiment, implied good times were still ahead.

The index suggested economic growth of 3% for this year.

While off earlier highs, it was still a solid signal overall, Mr Borkin said.

 


 

At a glance

• Consumer confidence remains steady

• Bad economic news is being ignored

• Short-term optimism reaches five-month high

• Results indicate GDP growth of 3% 


 

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