Signs migration gains starting to turn

Migration to New Zealand continues apace, with a slight softening in March numbers overshadowed by an annual increase to a net gain of 67,619 people, including up to a fifth having returned from Australia.

Statistics New Zealand said the annual net gain in migrants broke a record for the 20th month in a row.

Seasonally adjusted figures showed a net gain of 5330 migrants in March 2016, down from 6070 in February.

ASB economist Kim Mundy said net migration was continuing to run at record levels, but there was some evidence migration inflows could be close to peaking.

"We expect inflows from Australia to slow as the Australian labour market continues its recovery,'' she said.

Net migration from Australia continued to rise, with a net gain of 1900 migrants.

That is the highest annual net gain of migrants from Australia in about 25 years and March was the sixth consecutive month to show an annual net gain.

One in five migrants arriving in New Zealand in the March 2016 year came from Australia, and most were New Zealand citizens returning.

Ms Mundy said the New Zealand migration boom had been supporting the economy through increased demand for goods and services, but had also placed a strain on New Zealand's already tight housing market.

In-bound migrants are often cited for contributing to Auckland's red-hot housing market, where median prices have recently pushed beyond $800,000 and more than 60 suburbs have housing stock valued above $1 million.

The biggest influx was to Auckland, where migrant arrivals rose 10% to 52,443 in the March year.

Arrivals to Canterbury rose 5.4% to 12,864, while those headed to Wellington increased 13% to 9194.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod also said the March downturn could be the first sign of migration flows beginning to turn.

"Strong growth in the population as a result of net migration has been a key contributor to growth in spending and economic activity more generally, and has boosted the economy's productive capacity,'' Mr Ranchhod said.

Migrant arrivals rose 9% to 124,100, while departures slid 2% to 56,400.

Record migration has helped underpin economic growth, with the economy expanding at a 2.3% annual pace in the fourth quarter of last year, boosting demand for housing, vehicles, services and retailing.

Migration has continued at a stronger pace than Treasury and the Reserve Bank expected, keeping wage inflation low even as demand rises.

Those on work visas jumped 12% to 38,620 in the year through March, while student visas climbed 8.7% to 27,704, and arrivals of New Zealand and Australian citizens gained 5.9% to 36,355.

India remained the biggest source of student arrivals even as the annual tally slipped 4.1% to 9815.

It was followed by China, up 20% to 5719, and the Philippines, up 70% to 2239.

Work-visa arrivals were led by those from the UK, France, Germany and Australia.

Tourism continued to boom, with visitor arrivals rising 10% to a record 3.26 million in the year to March.

"China's burgeoning middle class is boosting the pool of potential tourists,'' ASB's Ms Mundy said in a note.

"Combined with increased numbers of holidaymakers from the US and Australia, tourism growth continues to grow strongly.''

The increase in tourist numbers and international students had helped boost exports of services, which was now the strongest-performing sector of the economy, Ms Mundy said.

Add a Comment