While the the 2016 harvest is expected to better last year's, analysts are picking the larger export companies will benefit more than smaller businesses struggling with cost pressures and distribution issues.
New Zealand wine exports in 2015 increased 8.5% to 142.1 million litres and the value rose 13.6% to $1.53billion, according to Rabobank's second quarter 2016 report, co-authored by wine analyst Marc Soccio.
Mr Soccio said demand growth for New Zealand wine was expected to continue in 2016 with the country's cool-climate wine styles, and premium positioning, remaining "very much in favour'' in most major export markets.
"Early indications of the southern hemisphere 2016 harvest point toward a lighter crop, with Chile, Argentina and South Africa facing significant falls in production.
"Production in Australia and New Zealand looks more in line with historical average values,'' Mr Soccio said.
The positive news for New Zealand's wine sector on the demand side was being matched by good news on the supply side.
The United States has edged out the United Kingdom as New Zealand's largest export market, following 12% growth in volume in 2015 into the US.
Production volumes of New Zealand wine grapes in 2016 were expected to be significantly higher than in 2015, although within a manageable range, Mr Soccio said.
"The volume of the 2016 vintage looks like it will be just right. It won't be too big, yet it also won't be too small for most companies entering the year with stocks erring on the tight side,'' he said.
One issue highlighted by Mr Soccio in the report was an over-reliance on Marlborough sauvignon blanc, although the demand outlook for that variety was strong.
"Despite its popularity, the high degree of exposure that the New Zealand wine industry has to one variety from one region still makes its fortunes the subject of great conjecture.
"This risk is still small, but increasingly real, with no shortage of cautionary examples of shooting stars within the global wine market over the years,'' he said.
Demand for Marlborough sauvignon blanc inevitably would plateau, and even wane in markets, so it was important the industry looked to invest in other varieties, he said.
Marlborough's success in sauvignon blanc made it difficult for other regions and varieties to compete for capital, Mr Soccio said.
However, some investment in other varieties and other regions of New Zealand was taking place, he said.
Marlborough wine companies were having notable success with pinot noir and pinot gris, while other regions, such as Hawkes Bay and Central Otago, had their own diverse offerings.
"They will continue to benefit as Marlborough-based companies seek diversification benefits elsewhere,'' he said.
Mr Soccio noted there was increasing pressure on the profitability of small to mid-size wine companies and consolidation within the industry was increasing, through mergers and acquisitions.
Since the oversupply generated by the 2008 vintage, asset values had rebounded strongly, making it difficult for smaller and less well-capitalised wine companies to expand their holdings, Mr Soccio said.
Deloitte's annual financial benchmarking survey showed the industry's largest companies achieved far greater returns than the smaller companies, he said.
Distribution was "the key to success'' in the growing US market.
Even some of New Zealand's larger independent wine companies were struggling to find effective distribution channels, to keep pace with New Zealand brands owned and handled by big US-based companies, he said.
