The GlobalDairyTrade auction early tomorrow is likely to be the final announcement for the first estimate of the milk price for the coming season.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said Fonterra traditionally announced the first estimate late in May and he expected it some time next week.
GDT prices and whole milk powder prices were down 5.7% and 10.1% respectively year-to-date, modestly below levels from a year ago.
"Despite subdued prices and a strong New Zealand dollar, we still expect Fonterra to start with a forecast above the $3.90 per kg of milksolids being forecast this year - probably close to $4.50.''
That would assume an increase in prices in coming months, although it would still be below break-even levels for many farmers for the third year in a row, he said.
Fonterra confirmed yesterday it would pay part of its forecast final dividend earlier, to support farmers during a time of extremely tight on-farm cash flows.
Other data to note this week included the Reserve Bank inflation expectations and New Zealand migration figures from Statistics New Zealand, Mr Timms said.
With interest rate cut expectations having moved closer to 50/50 for June, the inflation expectations would be of interest.
"It's hard to see migration figures being anything other than very solid, as has been the case for a few years now. However, given the influence of migration on housing and numerous other financial and social issues, any signs of softness on this front will be closely monitored.''
The local reporting season continued this week with Ryman Healthcare expected to be a highlight. Other companies reporting include Infratil and Goodman Property.
Annual meetings of Briscoe Group, NZX, Spark Infrastructure and Sydney Airport will be held this week.
